- Policymakers on Friday announced a raft of property support measures aimed at tackling oversupply...
- ...But the funding allocated to buy up unsold housing inventory is just the start, and more will be needed.
- In April, second-hand housing prices plunged at their steepest rate since September 2014.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Were it not for the superbonus, Italian investment likely would be falling off a cliff...
- ...Interest rates faced by firms are among the high- est, credit standards tight and loan demand sinking.
- The lagged hit from rising interest rates on Eurozone investment will fade later this year, but only slowly.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect two-year gilt yields to fall to 3.9% by end- 2024 as the MPC cuts rates.
- But high government refinancing and BoE gilt sales limit the fall in 10-year gilt yields to 4.0% at end-2024.
- Upside risks remain from inflation persistence and implausibly low public-spending forecasts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
China's banks held LPR steady in May; More funding is need to prop up the real estate sector
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's banks held LPR steady in May; More funding is need to prop up the real estate sector
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's Q1 GDP shrinks more than expected as domestic demand deteriorates
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Don’t hang your hat on Thailand’s market-beating Q1 GDP print
Malaysian export recovery still in play despite headline trade figures likely falling in May
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
China activity - retail sales slow as industrial output rebounds; likely major property policy announcement due today
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Improvement in Singaporean export growth down to base effects
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The lagged effect of tight credit and high rates is starting to bite; we're cutting our 2024 and 2025 forecasts.
- The small business sector is under pressure, and consumers are starting to wobble.
- Sustained slow growth will push unemployment up and inflation down; yields will drop, and stocks will struggle.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s real GDP rebounded in Q1, thanks mainly to improving domestic demand, but risks loom for H2.
- Fiscal challenges, a weakening external backdrop and bad weather conditions have clouded the outlook.
- COPOM minutes reinforce the hawkish stance, despite a split vote, and cite fiscal risks to inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Base effects flattered Singaporean NODX growth in April, while real production is disappointing.
- The long-running slide in urban unemployment in India appears finally to have stalled in Q1.
- Remittances growth in the Philippines remains subpar; momentum is waning and the peso lift will fade.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s April retail sales were hit by falling auto sales; the trade -in incentives should provide support.
- Industrial output regained its vim in April, led by high-tech manufacturing.
- Renewed government-bond issuance should restore infrastructure investment growth, after the April dip.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- EZ headline inflation held steady in April, matching the first estimate; core inflation fell slightly.
- The near-term outlook for energy inflation has improved, but that will change if oil prices rebound.
- Services inflation is as sticky as ever and will likely rebound in May; insurance inflation is rocketing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We are unconcerned by the strong net trade contribution to Q1 GDP growth.
- Trade figures will be revised materially, and the Q1 contribution was offset by volatile stock-building.
- Export volumes rose 1.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, excluding precious metals, erratics and oil.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Not definitive, but consistent with the idea that the trend is starting to rise.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Recovery in housing construction running out of steam.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
