- Europe is sitting pretty on energy so far this winter; prices are low and gas inventories are full to the brim.
- The current trend in oil and gas prices indicates EZ inflation could hit 1.5% by the middle of 2024.
- Asia and North America have taken over from Russia as marginal energy suppliers to Europe.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
A new cycle low, but a modest rebound is coming soon.
US
- In one line: Korea’s chip export values grow for the first time in 13 months
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- U.S. - The Pre-conditions for 2% Inflation are Mostly in Place
- EUROZONE- The EZ inflation data remain consistent with a March cut,to us
- U.K. - CPI Inflation Falling Quickly Enough for the MPC to Start Easing in Q2
- CHINA+ - China’s Property Developers Continue to Flounder
- EM ASIA - Collapse in Imports Saves Thai Q3 GDP from Complete Disaster
- LATAM - Milei’s Victory Presages Radical Change in Argentina; Will It Be Good?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The upturn in jobless claims bears close attention, though it’s much too soon to panic.
- Ignore the wild durable goods headline; core capex orders are rising, but other data are less benign.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely will respond to cheaper gasoline; will inflation expectations do the same?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chile’s gradual recovery will continue in Q4, but GDP remains below its pre-pandemic trend...
- ...Subpar growth and limited inflation pressures will allow the BCCh to keep cutting rates in H1.
- Activity will gather speed next year, but El Niño and geopolitical risks are key threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Malaysian export growth leapt to -4.4% year-over- year in October, from -13.8% in September...
- ...Supported by friendly base effects, recovering electronics exports and higher commodity prices.
- The factors behind October’s jump are likely to persist over Q4, boosting export growth further.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Korea’s 20-day exports continue to recover, but growth in shipment values slowed in November.
- Intra-regional exports are falling, bar those to China; Vehicles exports remain the main upward driver.
- We expect Korean exports to recover only gradually on a soft global outlook and uneven chip demand.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Negotiated wage growth in the EZ accelerated slightly in Q3, likely boosted by Germany.
- Market expectations and ECB communication are now wildly at odds; something has to give soon.
- We still see scope for easing early next year, but this call depends on a shift in language in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
THE FED IS DONE, AND WILL START EASING IN SPRING...
- ...BUT THE FOMC WON’T ABANDON OPTIONALITY JUST YET
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
MORTGAGE RATES TO FALL FASTER THAN WE EXPECTED IN Q1...
- ...WE NOW FORESEE A 5%, NOT 6%, PEAK-TO-TROUGH FALL IN PRICES
Samuel TombsUK
In one line: Down for the second straight quarter.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Milei victory presages radical change in Argentina; but a highly fragmented Congress will be a big hurdle.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A decent Q3, but more interest rate cuts are needed.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Homebase small business employment data point to a hefty rebound in November payrolls...
- ...But the margin of error in all payroll forecasts is huge; the seasonals are an intractable problem.
- No bottom yet for existing home sales, but supply is edging up, and valuations are falling as incomes rise.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
