Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

Global Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, July

In one line: Still suggesting private sector activity stalled at the start of Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, July

In one line: Still suggesting private sector activity stalled at the start of Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, July 2024

In one line:  Stubborn domestic inflation means headline held steady.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, July 2024

In one line: We think the manufacturing PMI is too downbeat, even after the upward revision. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, July 2024

In one line: Further increases in jobless claims are on the horizon. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Spain, Q2 2024

In one line: Continuing to outperform; inflation fell further than expected in July.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Confidence, Italy, July 2024

In one line: Edging down, in line with deteriorating overall business sentiment in France and Germany 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, June 2024

In one line: Still pointing to an improvement in growth, in contrast to the business surveys. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Super Tuesday likely to reveal that EZ Q2 GDP growth beat consensus

  • Q2 GDP data due next week will likely show a repeat of the Q1 figures in Germany, Italy and Spain… 
  • ...while GDP growth in France has probably doubled, to 0.4%, as services spending rocketed. 
  • So, we now think EZ GDP rose by 0.4% on the quarter, after 0.3% in Q1, 0.1pp higher than previously. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Bank credit tightening eased again in Q2; the trend will continue

  • Household demand for credit rose, and the fall in firms’ demand decelerated in Q2…
  • ...Banks tightened standards at a slower pace than in past quarters, supporting lending growth…
  • ...The subsequent pick-up in GDP growth will be gradual, however; not something for the ECB to fear.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, EZ, May 2024

In one line: EZ industry likely came out of recession in Q2, by the skin of its teeth. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Revising up our Q2 GDP growth call for Italy, marginally

  • Monthly hard data for Italy have been better than expected; our new nowcast points to faster growth… 
  • ...but business surveys suggest GDP growth is unlikely to budge from Q1’s 0.3%. 
  • Advance numbers suggest that EZ negotiated wage growth slowed in Q2, despite firmer Indeed data.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor House prices in the Eurozone will fare better than previously thought

  • The fall in Eurozone house prices eased for the second straight quarter in Q1…
  • ...and we see signs that demand is picking up sooner than we thought amid falling interest rates. 
  • We now think house prices will be broadly flat in 2024 after they slid by 1.2% in 2023.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence