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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

September 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

THE ECB IS UNDER PRESSURE TO EASE MORE QUICKLY

  • BUT “QUE SERA SERA”

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor France's budget deficit has to be reined in, but how?

  • French households celebrate falling inflation, but confidence-sapping tax hikes loom on the horizon. 
  • France’s deficit will hit 6% of GDP soon without corrective action; markets won’t let that slide. 
  • Spending cuts alone won’t reduce the deficit in France, tax hikes will be needed too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Sinking September PMIs put an October rate cut back in the frame

  • The EZ PMIs plunged in September, as the boost from the Summer Olympics ended. 
  • Our EZ Nowcast for Q3 GDP looks ugly, but we think it is misleadingly pessimistic at this point. 
  • The ECB will consider an October rate cut if non-energy goods inflation stays subdued in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 September 2024 EZ Monitor INSEE business survey data stabilising, but still weak overall

  • INSEE survey data show further signs of stabilisation in September but remain soft overall.
  • The Summer Olympics boosted Q3 GDP growth in France, but a payback looms in Q4.
  • We look for a big fall in the EZ PMIs today as the Olympics boost to French services reaches an end.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, September 2024

In one line: Better, but still consistent with weak growth in domestic demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, July 2024

In one line: Pushed down by a reversal in the primary income balance.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor The Fed goes big, but the ECB will stay focused on domestic data

  • The Fed’s 50bp rate cut increases the chance of an ECB rate cut in October, but only marginally…
  • …The bar remains high for a third ECB cut next month; September core goods inflation is key.
  • The EZ current account surplus has rebounded, but it will roll over in due course.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, July 2024

In one line: Q3 carry-over looks o.k., but survey data remains depressed.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, August 2024

In one line: Services inflation revised down marginally; headline to fall further in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Core goods inflation will determine the ECB's move in October

  • Falling energy inflation will pull headline HICP below 2% in September; we look for 1.8% year-over-year. 
  • Obsessing about services inflation is ‘so yesterday’; all eyes on non-energy goods in September and Q4. 
  • An October rate cut is back in play if core goods inflation fails to rebound in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance & Labour Costs, EZ, July/Q2

In one line: EZ trade pulled lower by imports in July; hourly labour cost growth remained elevated in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Mr. Draghi's EU competitiveness report clashes with new fiscal rules

  • Mr. Draghi's report on European competitiveness could help Italy and France in their EDP negotiations. 
  • We agree with Mr. Draghi's broad conclusions, but he is too upbeat on productivity and inflation. 
  • EZ hourly labour cost growth remained high in Q2, but stagnant profits point to lower inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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