- In one line: BanRep maintains steady 50bp rate cuts despite board divide.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
The PMI is probably a poor guide to the national picture.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Blame Italy for the upside surprise.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Blame Italy for the upside surprise.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Homebase data are less useful than usual in July, but business surveys point to sluggish growth in payrolls.
- We see an even chance of the Sahm rule being triggered and expect a below-trend 0.2% increase in AHE.
- Growth in unit labor costs has slowed to well below 2%, pointing to further falls in core inflation ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil, Colombia, and Chile’s central banks diverge in their monetary policy decisions, but caution prevails.
- BCB maintains Selic rate at 10.50%, emphasizing vigilance given inflation pressures and fiscal risk.
- BanRep cuts rate to 10.75%, Chile holds at 5.75% amid mixed economic signals and inflation threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Both July manufacturing PMIs indicate declining activity, especially the dip in the Caixin PMI.
- Extreme weather is only partly to blame; domestic demand is weak, as the growth model is revamped.
- China will keep adjusting incremental stimulus until growth is back on track at the “about 5%” target.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Eurozone unemployment rose slightly in June, but the underlying trend is still flat.
- Surveys point to downside risks to employment growth and upside risks to unemployment in H2…
- …Yet our own GDP growth forecasts point to a better near-term outlook.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC cut rates 25bp as consensus expected, but surprised markets with dovish words and forecasts.
- The MPC cut its mode two-year inflation forecast to 1.7%, and ditched services inflation as a lode star.
- We expect one more cut this year and three in 2025 as inflation runs above the MPC’s mode forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Export-led manufacturing recovery powers investment growth.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Further increases in jobless claims are on the horizon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Higher, but core inflation fell back.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's official PMIs point to stagnating manufacturing activity
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoJ raises the policy rate ahead of market expectations
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoJ raises the policy rate ahead of market expectations
China's official PMIs point to stagnating manufacturing activity & slump in construction demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Politburo calls for incremental policy measures, but no bazooka
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Confidence improves, but the fundamentals are still shaky.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
WAGES AND SERVICES INFLATION REMAIN ELEVATED
- ...BUT THE MPC WILL CUT IN SEPTEMBER, IF NOT IN AUGUST
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Resilient but slowing, amid domestic and external challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
