- China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged in April after the PBoC’s earlier decision to hold the MLF.
- The PBoC has less room to cut rates in the near term as market bets on a delayed Fed cut rate increase.
- Early Korean export data show strong memory-chip demand; US shipments remain solid.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The jump in US rate expectations is not needed to explain the similar repricing in EZ expectations.
- We expect bond yields in Germany to drift lower in the near term as the ECB starts cutting rates...
- ...But we still see an increase next year as the policy rate settles above neutral and inflation risks return.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Major employers are matching April’s 9.8% NLW hike for those earning a little above the minimum wage.
- The BoE Agents survey finds stronger pay growth than last year in consumer goods and services firms.
- We expect the NLW to boost private pay by 0.5%, with
upside risk, compared to the MPC’s 0.3% forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
STUBBORN SERVICES INFLATION AND WAGES...
- ...BUT THE MPC HAS SEEN ENOUGH SLOWING TO CUT IN JUNE
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Solid Korean 20-day export growth driven by chips demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's LPR remains unchanged in April
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's LPR remains unchanged in April; Solid Korean 20-day export growth driven by chips demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: Things are suddenly turning up for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Things are suddenly turning up for Indonesian exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Japan's inflation cools in March; the BoJ to stand pats next week
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's inflation cools in March; the BoJ to stand pats next week
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: Disappointing in March but retail will still boost Q1 GDP.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Recovering external demand supports Malaysian manufacturing in Q1 Domestic export growth falls on subdued commodity prices
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Last year’s strong consumption was due to rapid real income growth; the saving rate rose.
- Real income growth will be much slower this year, so if the saving rate keeps rising, spending will suffer.
- Consumption might slow gradually, but in the 2001 business cycle recession, growth lurched down.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Retail sales in Mexico performed poorly in Q1, due mainly to tighter financial conditions.
- The bad news won’t last; the sector will be supported by falling inflation and lower rates.
- The outlook, however, will likely be tempered by remittance trends and external risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The recovery in manufacturing that supported Q1 GDP growth in Malaysia is likely only to improve...
- …Prompting us to raise our 2024 full-year growth forecast to 4.8%, from 4.4% previously.
- Subdued commodity prices weighed on March exports, despite an improvement in electronics.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The steep decline in China’s new residential sales eased only a tiny bit in March.
- Developer funding is still under severe pressure; the 6,000-project whitelist offers limited help, so far.
- China’s residential sector faces a grinding recovery, despite flickers of life in Shanghai’s luxury market.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Eurozone is still an incomplete currency union, but we think it will carry on regardless.
- The pandemic and war in Ukraine show that inflation is possible even in a rapidly aging economy.
- Fiscal activism, inflation and higher interest rates are all here to stay in the EZ, for the foreseeable future.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
