In one line: Down, like the PMI, and dovish on inflation and wages.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Jobless claims in Germany rise again; EZ inflation expectations cool further.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Thomas Jordan ends reign as SNB Chairman with a cut; more easing is on the way.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The SNB has lowered its inflation forecasts towards our estimates, blaming a stronger CHF.
- It is unhappy with EURCHF and uncomfortable with its new end-of-horizon inflation call.
- We thought another cut would come in December, and we now also think it will trim rates in March.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation has been lower than the SNB expected in Q3; it will cut its inflation forecasts this week…
- ...Thomas Jordan will go out with a bang, cutting rates for the fifth time as SNB Chairman.
- We look for at least one more cut, in December; risks are tilted towards less easing than we expect.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Boost from the Olympics in August disappeared in September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The day of reckoning for Italy's public finances under the new EU fiscal rules has been delayed…
- ...Rome will submit its new MTFS plan 10 days late, at month-end; it needs more spending cuts.
- A sub-4% deficit this year is just wishful thinking; it will remain above 4% until 2026.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A hefty fall; set for a sixth quarter-on-quarter decline.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian industry remains in recession in Q3, in line with its German counterpart…
- ...Spanish industry is now joining the recession party, though it is still faring better than elsewhere.
- The outlook for EZ industry remains bleak, especially given signs of still-weak import demand from China.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Held back by deteriorating views on Germany.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Revised down; held back by consumption and investment.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Industry is unlikely to recover until the external picture improves.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- July’s German factory orders increase was driven by major orders; jump in June’s core orders was a blip.
- German industrial turnover figures point to output data today coming in well below consensus.
- EZ retail sales are still being compiled without German figures and cannot be relied upon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Likely too downbeat; still no German data.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: GDP growth is unlikely to slow in Q3, as the PMI suggests.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
