UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Global
- The OBR expects the economy to grow three times as fast in 2025 as the MPC does.
- Its productivity growth forecast, however, is likely to be disappointed, boosting government borrowing.
- Without action, government debt-to-GDP will probably still be rising in 2029.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We estimate that house prices were trending up at a 0.4% month-to-month rate in February.
- We expect monthly house-purchase mortgage approvals to rise to 65K in May, from 55K in January.
- Gradual mortgage-rate falls and firm income growth should allow house prices to rise 4% in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Last week the MPC hammered home the message that rate cuts are coming soon.
- The Committee will likely reduce inflation persistence in its May forecasts, setting up a June rate cut.
- We think the MPC will cut more slowly than the market expects, as it learns from the data where neutral is.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC’s tweaked guidance moves it closer to cutting rates.
- It continues to set sizeable hurdles to the first cut, downplaying weakening wages and inflation.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, but still see risks skewed to a delay until August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Headline CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp in February, as base effects unwound.
- Every month that passes without inflation surprising the MPC to the upside brings us closer to a rate cut.
- The MPC’s measure of underlying services inflation is proving sticky, however, keeping it cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The BoE’s Q1 Inflation Attitudes survey is encouraging; long-run expectations are below average.
- A methodology change in 2020 distorted the data though, potentially biasing expectations downwards.
- YouGov’s survey, meanwhile, shows long-term expectations 0.4pp above average.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC will need to cut rates rapidly if the weak Report on Jobs survey is right about pay growth.
- The RoJ reliably shows the direction of pay but is less good at measuring the precise growth rate.
- Other—also reliable—surveys are stronger; pay is slowing, but not as much as the RoJ indicates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK