Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Soft September sets for stage for more consumer weakness in Q4.
In one line: Italian economy starts the year on strong footing.
In one line: Enough for a December cut, but also enough to keep the MPC cautious about the pace of subsequent cuts.
Weak jobs market continues to depress consumers
In one line: Decent headline, but mixed details.
In one line: Little cheer for German consumers at turn of the year.
In one line: Little holiday cheer for EZ households at year-end.
In one line: Downside news focused in volatile items and partly driven by early discounting, while underlying inflation pressures remained firm.
In one line: Underlying inflation remians sticky, even though headline CPI is set to temporarily slow in the first half of 2026.
Spending slowdown and further labor market weakness are likely.
In one line: Solid details, but will it be sustained?
In one line: Inflation miss too small to stop a March rate cut, but stubborn services inflation means a second cut this year is far from certain.
Still pointing to a weaker labor market, but big recent revisions raise questions.
In one line: Strong momentum in domestic demand, but risks still loom in early 2026.
In one line: Sentiment improved, but unemployment fears remain high.
In one line: Initial hit from Trump's war is worse for EZ sentiment than his tariffs.
In one line: Stung by sharp declines in income, and overall, expectations.
In one line: Relatively stable, but consistent with downside risk to growth.
In one line: Fiscal support isn't going to save Spanish consumer spending in H1.
In one line: Stable in November; spending should pick up regardless.
In one line: Italian industry will be back on track after stumbling in October.
In one line: Consistent with a pick up in GDP growth in Q4.
In one line: A post-Budget sigh of relief from consumers, and sentiment has further to rise.
In one line: Industry slowed sharply in Q4, but goods spending likely accelerated.
In one line: Consumers' confidence can continue to rise slowly in 2026.
In one line: Sentiment improves; selling price expectations edge down.
Cooling consumer inflation justifies BoJ taking time on rate hike Flash PMIs lifted by tech sector and landslide election victory
In one line: Slight deterioration, but consumers and retailers are upbeat.
In one line: Sentiment edges down, price pressures remain elevated.
In one line: EZ inflation still looks dovish for February, but not enough to shift the ECB's stance.
In one line: Consumers' confidence should recover in 2026 as the fundamentals improve.
Consumer inflation gets holiday bumpProducer inflation continued to improve, ahead of oil price surge
In one line: Households already rattled by energy shock; industry yet to report feeling jittery.
In one line: Risks tilted to upside for EZ inflation; spending stung by weakness in both core and energy.
In one line: Consumers' confidence has further to fall in 2026.
Rob Wood topped the Sunday Times annual ranking of forecasters for the UK economy in 2020, and has earned plaudits for his forecasting
Resilient consumer spending is supporting GDP growth
In one line: Fiscal worries begin to weigh on consumer spending.
- CHINA LIKELY TO FOCUS ON EBBING DOMESTIC ACTIVITY- BOJ DECEMBER RATE HIKE BACK ON THE TABLE- KOREA'S CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REBOUND
In one line: Households' inflation expectations stubbornly above ECB target.
Consumer resilience is ebbing as year-end approaches
In one line: Pre-Budget chaos drags on consumer spending.
In one line: Still high, but not a decisive hawkish signal for the ECB
November retail sales likely to flag fading consumer momentum
December's soft sales hint at further consumer weakness ahead
In one line: Japan's cooling consumer inflation justifies BoJ taking time on rate hike
China's consumer spending was boosted by longer holidayinfrastructure investment rebounds thanks to policy supportIndustrial output lifted by export demand
The waning "wealth effect" will compound consumer weakness
Real Income Outlook Implies Recent Pick-Up is a False Dawn
August 5, 2025, 7:18AM EDT
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