Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: New Governor Shin signals rate hikes are on the way
In one line: BoK stays put today but new Governor Shin signals rate hikes on the way
BI SHOCKS WITH A 50BP HIKE; Q1 STRENGTH DUBIOUS
- …TAIWAN STILL FLYING, BUT DOWNSIDE RISKS ARE RISING
- The housing market has so far avoided a knee-jerk reaction to the latest energy price shock.
- But rising mortgage rates will limit house prices to 1.0% growth in 2026.
- House price inflation should improve to 3.0% in Q4 2027 as interest rates fall back.
- In one line: Inflation pressures remained broad-based in May.
CHINA+ OUTLOOK
- - CHINA'S Q2 WEAK START ONLY PARTLY DUE TO IRAN WAR
- - BOJ LIKELY TO RESUME POLICY NORMALISATION IN JUNE
- - NEW BOK GOVERNOR LIKELY TO SET HAWKISH TONE
- Industrial profits accelerated in April, supported by PPI reflation and better margins in the upstream sector.
- Gains were uneven, skewed towards energy and high-tech sectors, but broader momentum is improving.
- Profit growth will likely ease later this year as external demand softens and energy-price support fades.
- Rising inflation and subdued wage growth point to an outright fall in French real incomes in 2026…
- …But the indexation of minimum wages and social transfers will cushion the blow, in part.
- We now see GDP in France rising by just 0.7% this year, slowing from 0.9% growth in 2025.
- The insolvency rate remains low, suggesting a resilience to slower GDP growth in H2 2025.
- Higher borrowing costs will hit highly indebted and low-margin sectors of the economy.
- Corporate insolvencies will drift higher in the coming months, but we see few signs of major damage yet.
- US - The fiscal sugar rush for households is over; meager rations lie ahead
- EUROZONE - PMIs indicate the EZ economy is now in stagflation
- UK - CPI review: much—not all—of the downside news will unwind
- CHINA+ - Weak JPY pushing BoJ to hike rates, despite slowing inflation
- EM ASIA - BI’s huge, but explicitly pre-emptive, 50bp rate hike likely a one-off
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy still resilient, but restrictive policy is biting
- The increase in asset prices over the past year implies a one percentage point boost to consumption...
- ..A bit less than rules of thumb imply, due to low confidence, already-low saving and high borrowing costs.
- Real incomes probably will rise just 4% year-over-year in Q4, limiting spending growth to 1%%.
- Capex and construction in Peru continue to drive one of LatAm’s strongest recoveries…
- …But higher oil prices and persistent core inflation complicate the BCRP’s policy outlook.
- Political uncertainty and tighter global conditions threaten momentum over the coming quarters.
- Thailand’s trade deficit blowout in April was caused to a large extent by a violent swing in seasonals…
- …But the adjusted gap still hit a record low; we’ve cut our 2026 current account forecast to -1.5%.
- The oil-price boost to yearly import growth should peak soon, but exports are losing momentum too.
- Thailand’s trade deficit blowout in April was caused to a large extent by a violent swing in seasonals…
…But the adjusted gap still hit a record low; we’ve cut our 2026 current account forecast to -1.5%.
- The oil-price boost to yearly import growth should peak soon, but exports are losing momentum too.
- Consensus-beating headline GDP growth in Q1 was boosted by a post-Budget rebound in activity.
- We see few reasons, however, to challenge the data on grounds of residual seasonality.
- Rather, tariff front-running, tax changes and pre-Budget uncertainty explain recent growth trends.
- In one line: Still resilient to Middle East shock.
- Indian factories are hurting more from the war, but the worst of the bleeding in exports looks done…
- …Oil products will eventually respond to the price signal; Russian imports are a stop-gap for crude.
- We’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to a still-dovish 3.9% after correcting an error in our food-price tracker.
In one line: Japan’s export growth accelerates on rising legacy chip prices
In one line: Korea’s chip export boom masks the underlying K-shaped recovery
In one line: Japan's services activity stalls in May, likely hit by slowing inbound tourism
