- In one line: Two corrections starts to become a trend.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing almost stabilised but input cost inflation jumped.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
LATAM CENTRAL BANKS ADOPT A MORE HAWKISH POSITION
- A CAUTIOUS FED AND STICKY SERVICES INFLATION ARE HURTING
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chair Powell batted away talk of a further rate hike, and hinted that labor market fears are emerging.
- Everything will change if payroll growth slows sharply; that won't happen overnight, but it is coming.
- Still no signs of a real manufacturing recovery, and inflation risks from the sector are minimal.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexican Peso — Underperforming amid risk-off
- Colombian Peso —Resilience amid gradual rate cuts
- Chilean Peso — Poised for rebound amid benign factors
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Korea’s WDA exports have grown solidly in recent months, pointing to a sustained recovery in demand.
- Semiconductors accounted for 70% of growth in April; both US and Chinese demand was resilient.
- Weak currency played a role in supporting exports; the level of export values is still below that in 2022.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Real rates are still rising sharply in the Eurozone; it makes sense for the ECB to cut rates soon.
- Bonds are not priced for the ECB deposit rate to stay at 4%; if they were, yields would be a lot higher.
- What are the ECB’s assumptions for rates underlying its inflation forecasts? Answers on a postcard…
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think GDP was unchanged in March, after rising 0.1% in February.
- That would be enough to deliver Q1 growth of 0.4% quarter-to-quarter, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
- Consumer services contributed 0.16pp of that, but the turnaround has been
broad-based across sectors.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Consumers starting to feel the pinch.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Striking, but not a national bellwether.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Disappointing, but not the end of slowing employment costs inflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Decent, and the drag from refined petroleum products should reverse in the short run.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: The core is still drifting lower, but slowly does it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The core is still drifting lower, but slowly does it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Chinese industrial profits continue to improve in Q1 despite March's slowdown
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Strong but won’t prevent a rate cut in June.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: External demand does the heavy lifting, thanks to helpful base effects.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Solid, but construction was boosted significantly by mild weather.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
