Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
- GDP in Germany and Italy likely improved relative to Q2, but growth in France and Spain probably fell.
- EZ GDP growth is likely to have held steady, at just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.
- Q4 is set to be a touch better, as the drag from net trade fades, thanks to falling imports.
In one line: Significant back revisions mean Q3 was likely better than Q2.
In one line: Narrowing further; drag from goods trade on GDP eased in Q3.
- Trade figures indicate a significant dampening effect on EZ goods trade from US trade tariff hikes.
- The data show few signs of trade diversion and/or re-routing from China, but some price cuts.
- The EZ trade surplus will widen further to year-end, and the drag from goods trade on GDP will fade.
In one line: Down sharply; unsurprising given drop in German output.
In one line: Investors think things will get worse before they get better in Germany.
In one line: Falling imports boost surplus.
- Italy’s deficit will shrink this year but still exceed the EU’s 3%-of-GDP limit and the government’s target.
- Its 2026 budget plans are mildly expansionary, including a cut to taxes for middle-income earners…
- ...while little consensus on offsetting revenue-raising measures exists among the coalition.
In one line: Spending on goods in EZ went nowhere in Q3.
In one line: Not quite the catch up we expected but still pointing to upside risks to growth.
In one line: Down marginally, likely rebounded in September.
- In one line: At 0.2% for third straight month.
In on line: At 0.2% for third straight month.
- Swiss inflation held at 0.2% for the third straight month; it will remain stuck near zero until Q2 2026.
- The SNB has said it will ignore negative inflation prints in the near term…
- ...We expect the next rate move to be up, in 2027, despite downside risks to our inflation forecasts.
In one line: Consistent with a rebound in GDP in Q3.
In one line: No cut today; is the SNB easing cycle over?
In one line: No cut today; is the SNB easing cycle over?
- The Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at 0.0% yesterday, where we now think it will stay until 2027.
- The Bank said it was keeping its options open, but in our view the Chairman closed the door to more cuts.
- The next move in Swiss rates will be upward, despite inflation likely falling to year-end and downside risks.
In one line: Eking out some growth.
In one line: Eking out some growth.
