Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Eking out some growth.
In one line: Eking out some growth.
In one line: Improving, but still subdued.
- It will be a close call but we see more reasons for the SNB to cut its key policy rate next week than to hold.
- Inflation is low and set to fall, while other tools will not be as effective in fighting deflationary pressures.
- We look for the Swiss central bank to cut by 25bp to -0.25%, leaving it the lowest policy rate in the world.
In one line: Industry barely budged in early Q3.
In one line: The drag on GDP from net trade in goods is disappearing.
- The Eurozone’s nominal goods trade surplus rose at the start of Q3, as imports fell further than exports.
- The bloc’s trade surplus with the US is now half what it was before the Trump administration took power.
- Net trade in goods will likely have a neutral impact on Q3 GDP, despite the increase in US tariffs in August.
In one line: Held back by a drop in energy.
In one line: Not as bad as in France, Q3 will still be decent.
- Industrial production fell in Spain in July, though less than in France, while it rose in Italy and Germany.
- EZ industry likely eked out some growth at the start of Q3 and we look for a better Q3 than Q2.
- Services production fell in June, however, and surveys point to further weakness in Q3.
In one line: Down sharply again.
In one line: Growth slows as tariff front-running disappears.
- In one line: SNB cut this month still on, just.
In one line: SNB cut this month still on, just.
- Swiss inflation held steady at first glance, but the details are dovish.
- Leading indicators point to a gradual fall in inflation out to year-end, in contrast to the SNB’s forecasts.
- It’s a close call, but we think the risks to the outlook tip the balance towards a final rate cut this month.
In one line: Down to a record low.
In one line: Still pointing to downside risks.
In one line: Germany fared worse than initially expected in Q2.
In one line: Down further below its long-run average.
In one line: Down again but up over Q2 still.
