In one line: Weakness in Germany holds back the recovery.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Weakness in Germany holds back the recovery.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: On the up; we think it will continue.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Russia now accounts for just 15% of EZ gas imports, down from 45% before its invasion of Ukraine.
- Oil imports from Russia have slumped but are likely still entering Europe after being refined elsewhere.
- Non-energy trade has shrunk and will dissipate further this year, as the latest EU sanctions hit.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The recovery in construction will be slow coming.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Old news; net trade will be a drag on growth this year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ GDP growth is falling behind the US; relatively sluggish productivity is part of the reason.
- The inflation shock has depressed EZ labour productivity, but it should now be rebounding.
- Our interest rate forecasts are consistent with a relative shift in the EZ inflation and policy regime.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Eurozone GDP was flat in Q4, and we doubt the picture will improve in the first quarter.
- Investment will remain under pressure in H1, but consumers’ spending should now be rebounding.
- EZ employment growth is still outpacing the surveys; unemployment is pinned at a record low.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation fell sharply in January, beneath our below-consensus forecast...
- ...We are sticking to our call that the SNB will first cut its key policy rate in March, by 25bp to 1.50%.
- It will likely follow this up with 75bp-worth of cuts, split between 50bp in June and 25bp in September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Suggests increase in GDP in Q4 will be revised down, but outlook is turning.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss GDP likely fell in Q4 last year; it will recover this year as real disposable income growth rebounds.
- But base effects mean GDP growth will slow to 0.7% this year, from 1.2% last year.
- Inflation will stay low, the SNB will match ECB cuts to starve off CHF appreciation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Ugly; recession in industry will continue this quarter.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Output still rose in Q4, unlike in Germany and France.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ retail ends the year on a low note.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Sentiment on the up at the turn of the year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: : Still pointing to a further increase in the PMI.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
