In one line: Orders not rising in line with surveys; trade balance in goods rebounds
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German factory orders fell again in March, as capital and intermediate goods demand faltered...
- ...Turnover data suggest production figures will be better than expected today, but still down.
- Retail sales confirm the EZ consumer was still show- ing little interest in goods in Q1; will this change?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ unemployment rate held steady in March, staying at 6.5% for the fourth straight month.
- Employment growth likely slowed in Q1, in line with the surveys and advance national data...
- ...And will slow to Q3 at least, lifting the jobless rate as labour-force growth stays strong.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Ooof a big increase, but inflation is still within the SNB’s target range.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation rose in April on the back of a broad- based increase in prices...
- ...It should fall again to near 1% in coming months, though, so the SNB can continue its cutting cycle.
- We continue to look for more rate cuts this year than the consensus; 75bp-worth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Strong but won’t prevent a rate cut in June.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Italian GDP rises for third straight quarter, though a touch less than we thought it would.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: On a roll; outperformance to continue throughout this year
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Down, in contrast to the rise in the PMI.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Surging, will spending follow confidence up?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The rise in the EZ composite PMI suggests we should expect a pick up in GDP growth in Q2.
- Higher selling price expectations won’t prevent an ECB cut in June; they still point to lower inflation.
- The SNB’s tweak to minimum reserve requirements is not as big a deal as markets think.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Gaining steam, even though seasonals are likely behind some of the pick up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Gaining steam, even though seasonals are likely behind some of the pick up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Something funny in the data; on course for a rise in Q1 either way.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Spain was again the star performer in Q1; we look for GDP to have risen by 0.6% quarter-to-quarter.
- Italy was close behind, faring better than France and Germany, as construction investment rose again.
- Growth should rise in Spain and Italy later this year, but risks are to the downside, especially in Italy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone