Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, September 2024

In one line: Still in recession; Q3 saw the sixth straight quarterly fall in output.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, September 2024

In one line: German data included, EZ retail story rosier than previously thought

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, October 2024

In one line: PMI-suggested stagnation unlikely but Trump win bodes ill for already-weak demand for manufactured goods.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor Further floods risk a bigger slowdown in Spanish growth in Q4

  • Floods mean the risk to our call for Spanish GDP to ease slightly in Q4, to 0.6%, is for a bigger slowdown. 
  • It would take a significant hit to GDP for Spain to underperform the rest of the big four though. 
  • French industry rose over Q3, despite the fall in September; it is unlikely to increase again in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, November 2024

In one line: Decent GDP data support investor sentiment but it remains subdued. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, October 2024

In one line: Little to suggest the rut in industry is ending, despite increase.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, October 2024

In one line: Little to suggest the rut in industry is ending, despite increase.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, October 2024

In one line: Downside surprise, SNB will have to ease more than we previously thought.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, October 2024

In one line: Downside surprise, SNB will have to ease more than we previously thought.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, EZ, Q3 2024 & ESI, EZ, October 2024

In one line: Little in the GDP data to support an accelerated ECB easing cycle. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy, Q3 2024

In one line:  Disappointing; was the hit from construction investment bigger than we thought? 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP & Inflation, Spain, Q3/October 2024

In one line: Stellar again; inflation increase driven by energy base effects

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor What should investors expect from the next few days' EZ data deluge?

  • We look for EZ GDP growth at 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, slightly above the consensus, 0.2%.
  • Today’s early-October inflation data in Germany and Spain will point to a rebound in the EZ HICP. 
  • An upward revision to EZ unemployment is the main dovish risk to rates this week.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Mr. Trump's 10% tariff would barely make a dent in EZ GDP

  • Donald Trump has threatened a 10% tariff on goods imported to the US, if he becomes president. 
  • Our analysis suggests the hit to EZ GDP from a blanket 10% tariff would be limited… 
  • ...The GDP hit would be smaller if the EU retaliates but bigger if a US-China trade war escalates.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO/ISTAT Business Sentiment, Germany/Italy, October

In one line: Supporting our view Germany will avoid recession this year but pointing to downside risks in Italy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, October

In one line: Barely budging fuelling market expectations for faster ECB rate cuts.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence