Tough start to Q2 for Singaporean consumption
No breach of the BSP’s inflation target range to see here
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singapore’s headline and core inflation both appear to be stabilising, but unfortunately at a high rate...
- ...above the MAS’ comfort level, implying that any loosening of policy would be in Q4, at the earliest.
- Malaysian headline inflation is likely to rise from now on, averaging slightly over 2% for the year.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Malaysian inflation comes in at 1.8% for a third consecutive month
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Expect growth to struggle for the rest of Q2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Improvement in Singaporean export growth down to base effects
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Base effects flattered Singaporean NODX growth in April, while real production is disappointing.
- The long-running slide in urban unemployment in India appears finally to have stalled in Q1.
- Remittances growth in the Philippines remains subpar; momentum is waning and the peso lift will fade.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s export recover y is increasingly dependent on a continuation of US investment in AI.
- BNM is now likely to be on hold for the rest of 2024, as planned subsidy cuts bring upside risks to CPI.
- Falling real wage growth in Malaysia should soon star t dragging noticeably on retail sales growth.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Making peace with the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Making peace with the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Export recovery still on track, despite weaker headlines.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Food disinflation offsets impact from electricity tariff rise.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: External demand does the heavy lifting, thanks to helpful base effects.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s consensus-beating Q1 GDP print was driven by a strong recovery in net trade…
- …But less friendly base effects and still-soft export volumes point to growth slowing from Q2.
- All told, we have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast to 3.7%, from 3.4%, after Q1’s hot print.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Post-festive spending fatigue hits growth.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Recovering external demand supports Malaysian manufacturing in Q1 Domestic export growth falls on subdued commodity prices
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The recovery in manufacturing that supported Q1 GDP growth in Malaysia is likely only to improve...
- …Prompting us to raise our 2024 full-year growth forecast to 4.8%, from 4.4% previously.
- Subdued commodity prices weighed on March exports, despite an improvement in electronics.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Sharp drop in pharmaceuticals drags on Singaporean exports
Indonesian retail sales benefit from an election pop in February
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Singaporean GDP growth picks up in Q1 on recovering external demand
MAS opens the door to easing in Q4
Base effects are now dominating Philippine sales growth, masking weak marginal trends
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Below-consensus Q1 GDP growth in Singapore, despite friendly base effects, was no surprise to us...
- … As the uneven recover y in electronics and weaker construction activity continue to weigh on growth.
- The MAS has star ted making noise about easing in Q4, but we remain unconvinced, for now.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia