Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Duncan Wrigley
- China’s January total social financing growth was propped up by strong government-bond issuance.
- But slowing long-term household loans and developer sales mean more property support is needed.
- The PBoC is probably saving big moves such as rate or RRR cuts to mitigate likely escalating trade tensions.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s consumer goods trade-in scheme drove RMB300B in retail sales, or 0.2% of GDP, last year.
- The expanded scheme is likely to drive 0.7% of GDP this year, thanks to greater fiscal support.
- The industrial equipment upgrade programme should support 0.8% of GDP, unchanged from last year.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s January headline consumer inflation jumped, due to holiday spending and timing effects.
- The holiday bump in inflation is likely to subside after Lunar New Year, with demand still soft.
- Producer prices continued to fall in January, amid signs of industrial excess supply and falling costs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Producer prices extend their decline with broad price falls
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's headline consumer inflation buoyed by holiday travel and spending; underlying trend still weak for both consumer and producer prices
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China’s foreign reserves rose in January, likely on the back of export front loading ahead of tariff risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- BoJ officials continue to indicate their readiness to keep raising rates, despite trade tension worries.
- January Tokyo consumer inflation jumped to the highest since April 2023, because of food inflation.
- Real consumption spending also rose in January, but mainly due to spending on necessities.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin services activity slows, but sentiment improves
Japanese wages enjoy year-end bonus boost
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s consumption activity was strong over the Lunar New Year holiday period...
- ...But it is likely to slow again afterwards, repeating the pattern established since the reopening.
- January’s Caixin services PMI activity slowed a tad before the holiday, but expectations improved.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China is likely to be restrained in its retaliation to the US tariff hike announced over the weekend.
- A limited trade war is more likely than a near-term grand bargain. Goodwill gestures seem likely.
- The Caixin manufacturing PMI declined in January but held up better than the official gauge.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In much better shape than the headline suggests
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin PMI holds up better than official index
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin PMI holds up better than official index
Korean PMI rebounds with underlying export growth in decent shape
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- DeepSeek shows China can make cutting edge AI models, even if the training cost claims are murky.
- Chinese AI firms are likely to trail closely behind cutting-edge US leaders and improve in some ways.
- The PBoC’s asymmetric reaction function means the USD CNY downside is larger than the upside.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s real exports jumped in December, reflecting front-loading ahead of potential US tariff hikes.
- The January flash manufacturing PMIs fell, with new export orders remaining weak.
- Business expectations are still relatively strong though, despite worries about trade risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Vanke’s latest travails show persistent developer debt issues, despite slightly better property-market data.
- Residential area sold and developer funding rose in December but are still at low levels.
- China’s tier-one cities are likely to lead the upturn; with many cities lumbered with large housing supply,
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace
Duncan WrigleyChina+
