- Japan’s preliminary Q1 GDP surprised the market to the downside, with growth turning negative.
- Weak domestic demand, such as business investment and consumption, was the culprit.
- The sluggish growth does not warrant an early rate hike, as markets suggest; we stick to our Q4 call.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China consumer prices rose in April, after volatility in Q1 caused by holidays and base effects.
- The CPI changes were driven by higher energy and core inflation, but domestic demand was still feeble.
- The PBoC will use “flexible, precise and effective” monetary policy to promote reflation.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Despite tick-up in China CPI, demand is still weak; Producers still battle deflation
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Chinese producers still battle deflation
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s FX reserves fell sharply in April, thanks to a stronger dollar and a record rise in US yields
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s Q1 GDP grew solidly, thanks to vigorous manufacturing output and services growth.
- Services growth is broadening to business services, but the consumption recovery is relatively lacklustre.
- China will follow its own reform path at the Third Plenum, rather than adopting Western prescriptions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korean export recovery continues, thanks to resilient US and Chinese demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korea’s WDA exports have grown solidly in recent months, pointing to a sustained recovery in demand.
- Semiconductors accounted for 70% of growth in April; both US and Chinese demand was resilient.
- Weak currency played a role in supporting exports; the level of export values is still below that in 2022.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Chinese industrial profits continue to improve in Q1 despite March's slowdown
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- - CHINA’S RECOVERY MAKING HEADWAY
- - JPY PRESSURE GIVING THE BOJ A HEADACHE
- - STRONG EXPORTS LIFT KOREAN GROWTH
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI improves on higher output and weak JPY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI improves on higher output and weak JPY; services activity expands amid higher cost pressure
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged in April after the PBoC’s earlier decision to hold the MLF.
- The PBoC has less room to cut rates in the near term as market bets on a delayed Fed cut rate increase.
- Early Korean export data show strong memory-chip demand; US shipments remain solid.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Solid Korean 20-day export growth driven by chips demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's LPR remains unchanged in April
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's LPR remains unchanged in April; Solid Korean 20-day export growth driven by chips demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's inflation cools in March; the BoJ to stand pats next week
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's inflation cools in March; the BoJ to stand pats next week
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japanese exports grow sturdily in March, lifted by strong Chinese demand and a weak yen.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoK stays put as inflation remains elevated, no surprise to the market.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+