Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, March

ADP distracts more than it informs.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, March

Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, March

Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

1 April 2025 US Monitor Payroll growth likely slowed in March, but to a better-than-recession pace

Headline payrolls likely rose about 140K in March, with private payrolls up by roughly 125K.
Ignore the upbeat NFIB survey; Conference Board, Indeed and regional Fed data point to a slowdown.
Continuing claims data point to a stable unemployment rate, but WARN filings point to a rise ahead.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, February

Sales likely to remain in the doldrums.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, February

Gold trade and pre-tariff stockpiling are distorting the numbers.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, February

Equipment investment likely to remain anemic at best.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

28 March 2025 US Monitor February spending data to show slower growth, but no contraction

Today’s PCE report likely will show a rebound in real consumption and a 0.4% rise in the core deflator.
Threatened auto tariffs would likely raise the core price level by 0.2-to-0.4percentage points.
Soaring gold imports imply a much smaller drag on Q1 GDP from net trade than headline data suggest.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, February

Sales likely to drift lower.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

27 March 2025 US Monitor Costs of high uncertainty clear in March regional Fed services surveys

Regional Fed surveys suggest that services sector activity, hiring and investment is slowing sharply.
The message on inflation is mixed, but firms expect their pricing power to wane.
February’s orders report provides further signs the recovery in equipment investment is already fading.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

26 March 2025 US Monitor A consumer slowdown looks more likely than an imminent recession

The consumer surveys have deteriorated sharply, but probably overstate the incoming slowdown.
Air passenger numbers are 4% below their peak, matching the drawdown before the 2001 recession...
...But similar declines also were seen in 2005 and 2006, without recession immediately ensuing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US