Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)

2 January 2025 US Monitor Weaker trade & investment prompt downgrade to our Q4 GDP forecast

  • We have revised down our forecast for Q4 GDP growth to 2%, from 2.5% previously.
  • Recent data point to a huge slump in investment in aircraft, and a significant drag from net foreign trade.
  • Attempts to get ahead of threatened tariffs probably will distort the GDP data in the early part of 2025.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, November

Multi-family volatility obscures the weak big picture.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, November

Consumers aren’t throwing in the towel just yet.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, December

Services growth still robust, but the inflation outlook is encouraging.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, December 7

Post-Thanksgiving volatility probably drove the jump in initial claims.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, December

A lackluster post-election pick-up confidence; inflation worries in check for now.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, November

Services companies see few reasons for cheer in the election result.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade / Durable Goods Orders, October

Import stockpiling likely to resume; equipment investment probably weak again in Q4.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, October

 Mostly a hurricane story, but sales probably will remain weak.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, Oct.

 Hurricanes weigh on single-family starts, but the underlying trend is flat.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, November 9

The softening in the labor market remains very gradual.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US CPI, October

Consistent with a core PCE print on the 0.2-to-0.3% borderline.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

13 November 2024 US Monitor Hurricanes and warm weather likely meant weak control sales in October

  • Core retail sales usually struggle after hurricanes, and warm weather likely weighed on clothing sales.
  • Carryover from Q3 will support growth in consumption in Q4, but expect slower gains from here.
  • Credit conditions remain very restrictive, as banks have continued to tighten lending standards. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

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Keywords for: Publications

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence