Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
THE RUSH TO BEAT STAMP-DUTY CHANGES PEAKS...
- ...BUT HOUSE PRICES SHOULD STILL RISE BY 4% IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We assume a 10% tariff on UK goods exports to the US lowers 2025 UK GDP growth by 0.2pp.
- But strengthening growth in services—immune from tariffs—shows that UK growth can hold up.
- Strong domestic price pressures will keep the MPC cautious; we still expect two more rate cuts this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stamp duty changes halt house price inflation in March, but it will accelerate again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tariffs will keep manufacturing output falling for the forseeable future.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 2.7% in March, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Petrol price falls will drag inflation down, while core price gains will remain firm.
- March is the calm before the storm of April price hikes, which should drive up headline inflation to 3.6%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect zero GDP growth in February as services and construction offset falling industrial output.
- Risks to our call are broadly balanced, though manufacturing is subject to tariff-driven uncertainty.
- We continue to forecast 0.3% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q1.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Consumers are raising credit-card borrowing rapidly and cutting saving to support spending.
- Liquid asset accumulation shows households saving the least since August 2023.
- Falling finance raised by corporates, however, suggests investment will stagnate in early 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth recovered in Q4 as Budget uncertainty passed but President Trump’s tariff hammer hangs over the outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The trade balance will remain weak as energy prices remain high and uncertainty prevails.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales continue their post-Budget rebound and will drive a growth recovery in Q1
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- UK consumers are finding their feet, and likely boosted Q1 GDP growth to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter.
- Stubborn inflation pressures will keep the MPC to only two more rate cuts this year.
- But President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ hangs over the outlook, posing major risks to growth and inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
GROWTH HOLDS UP AND INFLATION RISES...
- …BUT US TARIFFS CAN UPEND THE OUTLOOK
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Just the third February fall in clothes prices in 18 years dragged inflation below consensus.
- A March goods price rebound is a solid bet, so inflation will still likely surge to 3.5% in April.
- The MPC will have to stay cautious, especially as services inflation pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Erratic items drag down inflation, underlying pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices surge in January but the rush to beat higher stamp duty will fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Chancellor Reeves cut spending to maintain £9.9B of headroom against her fiscal rules.
- OBR forecast changes and spending cuts were close to expectations and modest.
- Higher borrowing and back-loaded spending cuts are slightly hawkish for the MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Solid growth and strong price pressures means the MPC will have to be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Better growth and rising inflation implied in the March PMI raise the risk of only one more rate cut this year.
- The PMI now agrees with other surveys that employment is stalling rather than cratering.
- The PMI is signalling a small increase in underlying services inflation pressure.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Higher gilt yields and weaker-than-expected taxes wipe out the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom.
- Back-loaded welfare cuts and modest reductions to planned public spending can restore headroom.
- Gilt issuance will reach a post-pandemic high of £313B in 2025/26.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Weak public finances mean spending cuts in the Spring Statement, taxes will rise in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
