Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence drops again in January as risks to the growth outlook build.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Payroll tax hikes cut jobs but raise inflation so the MPC will have to plot a middle course of cautious cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Average earnings growth was surprisingly strong in November, even accounting for statistical noise.
- PAYE signals a 4.8% annualised month-to-month gain in private-sector ex-bonus AWE in December 2024.
- Slowing settlements are consistent with private AWE growth easing to 4.0% in Q4 2025, matching our call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Both the PMI output growth and output price balances surprised to the upside in January.
- The MPC will cut rates in February, but inflation pressure means only three rate cuts in total this year.
- Payroll falls pose a downside risk to growth, but the ONS likely will revise up the December drop.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Jobs market is loosening gradually, but strong wage growth is a block to quick MPC rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Public sector borrowing exceeded the OBR’s latest forecasts in December.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- MPC members are giving formal speeches less frequently now than before Covid.
- There is evidence that they retreated even further from communicating when inflation surged in 2022.
- We think this has made their reaction function more difficult to understand and is impacting markets.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The labour market is stronger than payrolls show; revisions should raise December’s drop to no change.
- Redundancies remain low and jobless claims show little sign of a sharp labour-market downturn.
- The MPC will ease in February, but strong wage growth blocks rapid interest rate reductions this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Disappointing retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall in Q4, so the MPC will definitely cut rates in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The weight of services in the CPI is likely to rise slightly in 2025, while the weight of goods should fall.
- Weight changes will be small compared to last years’ but still add 11bp to our inflation forecast…
- …because a smaller than usual weight of airfares in January reduces the impact of New Year price falls.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We wobbled on our call for three rate cuts this year, but soft growth keeps us on track.
- GDP is now trending down slightly, and disappointing retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall in Q4.
- Payrolls next week will show whether employment really tanked in December, as the PMI signalled.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The trade deficit narrows in November but remains wide; import prices point to firming goods inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Budget uncertainty, tax hikes and Mr. Trump's tariff threats continue to weigh on growth
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation of 5% in 2025 according to the RICS.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation will reaccelerate in the New Year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Discount downside news which was driven by erratic airfares and hotels that will rebound; inflation is still heading above 3% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Growth halted when Ms. Reeves signalled tax hikes, a shock compounded by Mr. Trump’s tariff threats.
- But falling consumer saving and public spending will help growth recover in 2025.
- The MPC will cut rates in February but will have to be cautious as inflation rises above 3% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- December’s surprise inflation fall gives the MPC a narrow window of opportunity to cut rates in February.
- But lower inflation was due to plunging airfares, driven by an early CPI collection date.
- Airfares inflation will surge in January, as will private-school fees, raising CPI inflation to 2.8%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We assume unchanged payrolls month-to-month in December, as tax hikes weigh on hiring intentions.
- The official unemployment rate likely held steady at 4.3% in November, but it is trending up gradually.
- Private-sector ex-bonus AWE likely rose 0.4% month-to-month in November, keeping the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Rising price pressures are a problem for the MPC, jobs growth holding up better than REC and PMI suggest.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
