Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)

25 April 2025 UK Monitor Labour market still cooling gradually, but downside risks rising

  • A swathe of data on the labour market indicates that the job market is cooling, not cratering.
  • But the balance of risks has shifted to a faster shake-out after President Trump’s tariffs.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.1% in 2026 as the trade war dampens GDP growth.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, March 2025

  • In one line:The public finances are weak heading into the trade war, difficult choices lay ahead for the Chancellor.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

24 April 2025 UK Monitor MPC can cut rates back-to-back but will avoid a 50bp reduction

  • Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the resulting uncertainty have led the UK PMI to tank to its lowest since late 2022.
  • Rising price pressures and the PMI’s overreaction to uncertainty mean the MPC will retain some caution.
  • But downside growth risks mean we expect back-to-back, precautionary, rate cuts in May and June.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, March 2025

  • In one line: Erratic computer games and hotel prices drag inflation down, headline inflation will still likely jump to 3.5% in April.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, February / March 2025

  • In one line: Enough softening for the MPC to cut, but strong wage growth will keep rate setters cautious.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, February 2025

  • In one line: House prices rise in February but property price inflation will ease in Q2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, March 2025

  • In one line: Retail sales continue to grow strongly but slowing global growth clouds the outlook.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

22 April 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: tariffs hang over a previously solid outlook

  • Weaker-than-expected March inflation makes a May interest rate cut a racing certainty.
  • Solid pre-tariff growth means we look for only three more 25bp Bank Rate cuts this year…
  • …But downside risks allow earlier moves; we expect back-to-back ‘insurance’ cuts in May and June.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, March 2025

  • In one line: Solid jobs and accelerating wages will keep the MPC cautious heading into the trade war.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GDP February 2025

  • In one line:GDP soars in February but the MPC will look through the pre-Tariff data.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, February 2025

  • In one line: Fracturing global trade will begin to weigh on the trade balance in the coming months.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, March 2025

  • In one line: The housing market is cooling now but activity will pick up in H2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 April 2025 UK Monitor A nice bonus for the MPC, but inflation is still heading to 3.5%

  • A May rate cut is a racing certainty after CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast in March.
  • But underlying services inflation held steady at 4.5%, while tax hikes, government-set price increases…
  • ...and unwinding erratic factors weighing on March inflation will still drive CPI inflation to 3.5% in April.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

16 April 2025 UK Monitor Wage growth still too strong, but hit to growth from tariffs will weigh

  • Treat March’s huge payrolls drop with caution, it will very likely be revised up.
  • Looking across the range of labour-market data, the picture remains one of gradual loosening.
  • Pay growth remains far too high, but the hit to GDP growth from tariffs risks a faster job market easing.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

14 April 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: GDP jumps in February but tariffs will hurt growth

  • GDP growth soared in February as industrial production and services activity rose higher…
  • …But the ongoing global trade war has made incoming data obsolete.
  • The MPC will be challenged by a broken trading environment and CPI at 3.5% in H2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

11 April 2025 UK Monitor Cash saving rate at an all-time high fails to pass the smell test

  • Multiplying ONS errors increasingly hint at systemic problems that could affect more data series.
  • The saving rate has disconnected from its usual economic drivers, so it may have been mis-estimated.
  • Household income based on unreliable official job data is particularly subject to risk of error, we think.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

10 April 2025 UK Monitor The Bernanke review one year on: still a missed opportunity

  • Slow progress in implementing the Bernanke review leaves us pessimistic about the resulting changes.
  • Sub-optimal communication means the MPC will need higher interest rates than otherwise.
  • The rapidly evolving trade war means we see three further 25bp cuts to Bank Rate in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

9 April 2025 UK Monitor Labour-market preview: weaker employment but strong wages

  • We look for a 30K month-to-month fall in March payrolls, consistent with a 6k fall after revisions.
  • The unemployment rate should tick up to 4.5% in February, from 4.4% in January.
  • Pay growth remains sticky; we expect February private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.3% month-to-month.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

8 April 2025 UK Monitor The US pouring gas on the fire means a chance of recession

  • We still think tariffs will be stagflationary eventually, as countries retaliate and boost government spending.
  • But the balance of risks has shifted to recession after President Trump doubled down over the weekend.
  • We cut 2025 GDP growth to 0.7% but leave our rate forecasts unchanged, waiting for clarity on headlines.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, March 2025

  • In one line: Jobs market passes the worst as prices and wages prove persistent.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
 

Sign up for your complimentary trial

To start your complimentary trial, highlight the areas you are interested in subscribing to and click next.

United States

Eurozone

United Kingdom

China +

Emerging Asia

Latin America

Next

 
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Publications

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence