Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Output prices likely rising more slowly than the CBI’s survey implies.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
A SMALL WOBBLE AS MORTGAGE-RATE DROP PAUSES...
- ...BUT PRICES WILL STILL RISE 4% IN 2024
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI is consistent with 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q2, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
- The PAYE employment drop in March looks like noise, as the PMI records strengthening jobs growth.
- Price pressures remain elevated, with the minimum-wage hike boosting input price inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Borrowing overshoots Budget forecasts but the Chancellor will still cut taxes again later this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Major employers are matching April’s 9.8% NLW hike for those earning a little above the minimum wage.
- The BoE Agents survey finds stronger pay growth than last year in consumer goods and services firms.
- We expect the NLW to boost private pay by 0.5%, with
upside risk, compared to the MPC’s 0.3% forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
STUBBORN SERVICES INFLATION AND WAGES...
- ...BUT THE MPC HAS SEEN ENOUGH SLOWING TO CUT IN JUNE
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Disappointing in March but retail will still boost Q1 GDP.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Retail sales ended Q1 with a whimper, stagnating in March as department-store sales tanked.
- Look through the month-to-month volatility though, and retail sales growth is trending up.
- We still expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, after Governor Bailey downplayed the inflation miss.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Brexit, demand uncertainty, staff shortages and high interest rates have held back business investment.
- All of these drags should ease, with staff shortages falling and the MPC likely to cut rates this summer.
- Firms’ investment intentions point to 1.5% year-over- year capex growth, an upside risk to our forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Headline and services inflation overshot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp and 0.2pp, respectively…
- …Reflecting stronger-than-expected underlying price pressures, not the impact of an early Easter.
- We still expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, but are very close to delaying that first cut to August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC will note the sharp employment drop, which suggests a risk the labour market is loosening quickly.
- But the headline jobs data are ropey, and surveys point to employment slowly rising.
- The MPC will focus more on stronger-than-expected pay, which suggests June is the earliest for a rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Ben Bernanke’s review of BoE forecasting makes detailed modelling recommendations.
- But it gives wide latitude on how to use scenarios and does not recommend publishing a policy rate path.
- Nothing new for markets near term; in the medium term, changes are still open to debate.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Trade deficit little changed in February, but will improve this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: GDP is on track for 0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q1, beating MPC forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We raise our growth forecast, and now expect a 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP gain in Q1.
- Returning growth won’t stop the MPC cutting rates but will keep it to a one-cut-per-quarter pace.
- The MPC switching to scenarios, from fan charts, post Bernanke Review likely matters little to markets.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Building hopes of rate cuts boost buyer demand and house prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- UK interest rates have followed the US in most major cycles since the mid-1970s.
- Exceptions to this when the economies have diverged mean the MPC can cut rates in June as inflation slows.
- The MPC will be cautious about the pace of cuts, given sticky services inflation and to avoid GBP falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 3.0% in March, from 3.4% in February, 0.1pp weaker than the MPC forecast.
- The early-Easter boost probably led to servicesinflation of 5.9%, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
- Services inflation should drop sharply to 5.2% in April as those Easter effects unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Early easter boosts March retail sales, growth will slow in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- ‘Easter-adjusted’ BRC retail sales probably rose 1.2% year-over-year in March, similar to February.
- We expect a 0.3% month-to-month increase in official retail sales volumes in March.
- Retail volumes will continue rising after March as real income increases and relative goods prices fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK