Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- We expect the MPC to agree in September that QT will continue at a £100B-a-year pace from October.
- The BoE has welcomed increased use of its short-term repo facility as part of a strategic shift…
- ...to a demand-driven reserves system, while small changes to active QT would be fine-tuning.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
REBOUNDING GROWTH AND SLOWLY EASING WAGES
- ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN NOVEMBER AND THREE TIMES IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Spending is already overshooting Budget forecasts, government borrowing will exceed the Budget forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The ONS Blue Book revisions raised the level of GDP in Q4 2022 by 0.8%.
- Statistician’s will publish full revisions up to the latest data in Q2 2024 on September 30.
- Revisions to growth two years ago will have little effect on monetary or fiscal policy.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC has shifted its focus away from inflation and wages to broader economic scenarios.
- Even rate-setters voting for an August cut placed considerable weight on the more hawkish scenario.
- Reduced data-sensitivity and the scenarios suggest gradual rate cuts, with the next one in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Retail sales volumes gained 0.5% month-to-month in July but were depressed by a large seasonal factor.
- We estimate that retail sales volumes are trending up at a 2.5% month-to-month annualised pace.
- Surveys and consumer confidence signal improving retail sales, while rate cuts will give a boost.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Trade deficit weighed down by erratics, non-monetary gold and natural gas prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Solid GDP growth suggests the MPC can wait until November to cut rates again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Weaker inflation helps the case for rate cuts, but airfares and hotel prices will rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP was unchanged month-to-month in June and grew 0.6% quarter-to-quarter in Q2 as expected.
- Growth will slow in H2 2024, but consumer spending should keep the economy expanding solidly.
- We see upside risks to our forecast for 1.2% year- over-year GDP growth in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rise again in June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Encouraging wage slowdown but recovering jobs growth will keep the labour market tight.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Stronger utility price inflation boosted CPI inflation to 2.2% year-over-year in July.
- Services inflation fell to 5.2%, below the consensus, 5.5%, driven by erratic airfares and hotel prices.
- Gradually slowing services inflation points to more rate cuts, but the MPC will wait until November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC will be encouraged that wage growth is slowing in line with its forecast for Q2.
- Rate-setters will downplay the still unreliable unemployment rate, which fell to 4.2% in June.
- But a range of data shows robust employment, which suggests the MPC will cut rates only slowly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We estimate that last week’s financial market volatility will cut 1 point off August’s PMI services.
- Strong new orders and firms’ confidence means the PMI services should still rise two points in August.
- The financial ructions are likely to have sliced just two points off consumers’ confidence.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- House prices have almost recovered their losses since October 2022.
- House-price inflation is now trending up at nearly 3% month-to-month annualised.
- We think that house prices will rise 4% year-over-year by Q4 2024 as mortgage interest rates fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Jobs market rebounding but wage growth stays soft for now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation edged down in July, but will accelerate as mortgage rates fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- July PAYE employment should gain 30K month-to-month, while the June jobless rate rises to 4.5%.
- We think May AWE growth being revised up is a decent bet and we factor in a 0.2% bump.
- So we expect Q2 year-over-year private-sector AWE ex. bonuses growth 20bp above the MPC’s forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation in the UK likely rose to 2.3% in July, from 2.0% in June, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- The rise will be due to easing utility price deflation, as Ofgem cut the price cap less than in July 2023.
- We expect CPI services inflation to slow to 5.5% but uncertainty is high because of volatile hotel prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
