Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: The Construction PMI roars ahead.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales return to growth in July.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Markets are pricing the MPC to cut interest rates about as fast as after the dot.com bubble burst.
- We think that is too much: our US colleagues forecast slower, but continued, US growth…
- …The UK and US economies are not currently synchronised and UK inflation is higher than in 2001.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- July’s headline PMI signals 0.2% quarter-to-quarter growth and only a gradual decline in inflation.
- Surging business optimism, hiring and new orders suggests activity growth will accelerate.
- The July PMI will not push the MPC to cut rates again in September; we now expect November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI signals steady growth now and a stronger expansion to follow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Private sales remain weak, total registrations continue to grow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to be unchanged month-to-month in June, as retail sales and doctors’ strikes hit output.
- That would leave Q2 GDP up 0.6% quarter-to-quarter, just below the MPC’s new forecast.
- We think recent growth reflects stronger underlying momentum than the MPC assumes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Doves let loose, another rate cut is coming by year-end.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Supporting the MPC’s decision to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing growth and employment to accelerate as business optimism soars.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation beats expectations again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC cut rates 25bp as consensus expected, but surprised markets with dovish words and forecasts.
- The MPC cut its mode two-year inflation forecast to 1.7%, and ditched services inflation as a lode star.
- We expect one more cut this year and three in 2025 as inflation runs above the MPC’s mode forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
WAGES AND SERVICES INFLATION REMAIN ELEVATED
- ...BUT THE MPC WILL CUT IN SEPTEMBER, IF NOT IN AUGUST
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Smaller utility price cuts this July than in 2023 will push up CPI inflation to 2.2%, from 2.0% in June.
- We expect the easing of utilities price deflation to be offset by slower goods and services inflation.
- Uncertainty is high as our call hinges on volatile public rents, likely strong, and hotel prices, likely weak.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Increased risk appetite and approaching rate cuts led firms to raise finance for the third month in four.
- Consumers continue to plough money into ISAs to take advantage of good deposit rates.
- But we doubt households will save more, as they are already building up real liquid assets at a decent clip.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Fading consumer caution and renewed corporate risk appetite bode well for growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Fading consumer caution and renewed corporate risk appetite bode well for growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP growth continues to outperform consensus estimates and MPC projections.
- Services inflation remains elevated and is overshooting forecasts by a widening margin.
- We think the MPC will wait and cut Bank Rate in September, but it is a very close call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The July PMI is consistent with Q3 GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- But surging new orders and future business expectations suggest the PMI will leap in August.
- Slowing output prices will comfort the MPC, but stronger hiring could keep wage growth elevated.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The wide current account deficit reflects elevated fuel import costs and weak investment income.
- Neither factor is likely to improve in the near future, so we expect the large current account deficit to persist.
- That will hold sterling back, as will the weakest international investment position in 37 years.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK