Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)
- Higher core goods and services inflation in August will raise CPI inflation to 2.3%, from 2.2% in July.
- Goods inflation should tick up as used car prices rise and furniture prices rebound from July discounts.
- We look for CPI inflation to be 0.1pp less than the MPC expects, and services 0.2pp lower.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Ofgem announced a 9.5% utility price-cap increase for October, fractionally lower than we expected.
- Accordingly, we edge down our December CPI inflation forecast to 2.7%, from 2.8% previously.
- Wholesale energy futures prices and geopolitical risk point to further utility-bill hikes in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Gilt yields have fallen sharply at the short end of the curve since the MPC cut rates in August.
- But we make minimal changes to our gilt yield forecasts, as the fundamental drivers are unchanged.
- The market continues to function well, and buyers have been attracted back to gilts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- GDP growth for Q2 was below the MPC’s projection, but we estimate it is trending above potential.
- CPI services inflation was below the market consensus in July, for only the second time this year.
- We think these data do not warrant another rate cut in September; the next will come in November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The official ONS measure of house prices has risen above its 2022 peak and will likely keep gaining...
- ...as private-sector house price indices have returned to growth, and mortgage interest rates are falling.
- We expect mortgage approvals for house purchase to rise to 63K in July.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
HOUSE-PRICE RECOVERY STRENGTHENING...
...WE EXPECT 4.5% HOUSE-PRICE INFLATION IN 2024
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ spending audit suggests £16.5B higher government borrowing in 2024/25.
- Interest costs will add to pressures; we expect borrowing £22B above the Budget forecast for 2024/25.
- Fiscal pressures build over time, so tax hikes along with higher borrowing are likely in the longer term.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
HOUSE PRICES DEFY HIGH INTEREST RATES...
- ...WE EXPECT 4% HOUSE-PRICE INFLATION IN 2024
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote six-to-three to keep Bank Rate on hold at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
- The MPC said its decision depends on GDP, services inflation and wages; all have exceeded its forecasts.
- It will be a hawkish cut if rate-setters do go ahead, with their guidance likely cautious about future easing.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The OBR’s forthcoming Fiscal Sustainability Report will deem debt to be on an unsustainable path.
- The report will provide support to our call that the government will have to raise taxes.
- We think the report will place renewed focus on the need for a long-term plan for the public finances.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Output rose 0.4% month-to-month in May, putting GDP 1.5% higher than at the start of the year.
- We raise our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% quarter-to-quarter and see upside risk.
- Yesterday’s release supports our call for the MPC to wait until September to cut Bank Rate.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Company insolvencies surged to a record high in 2023, but that exaggerates corporate distress.
- The liquidation rate remains far from its peak and rose mainly due to catch-up after a hiatus in 2020.
- We expect insolvencies to fall as GDP growth rebounds and the MPC begins cutting Bank Rate.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We upgraded our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 0.4% quarter-to-quarter, close to the MPC’s 0.5% call.
- Services inflation exceeded MPC forecasts by a widening margin in April and May.
- So we pushed back our first MPC rate cut to September, but we still expect two cuts by year-end.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-to-quarter for the rest of the year, after the 0.6% increase in Q1.
- Sticky services prices and energy effects mean we see inflation rising to 2.8% by Q4 2024.
- We now expect the first Bank Rate cut in August, then once per quarter thereafter.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect two-year gilt yields to fall to 3.9% by end- 2024 as the MPC cuts rates.
- But high government refinancing and BoE gilt sales limit the fall in 10-year gilt yields to 4.0% at end-2024.
- Upside risks remain from inflation persistence and implausibly low public-spending forecasts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We see the MPC continuing quantitative tightening at its current £100B-per-year pace in 2024/25.
- The MPC has said explicitly that it does not see rate cuts and QT as contradictory.
- Reserves will not reach ‘equilibrium’ until 2026, even with QT at a £100B-per-year pace.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
