Pantheon Publications

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, September 2024

• In one line: Growth will bounce back but easing inflation will lead the MPC to cut rates in November.

Samuel TombsUK

PM Datanote: US FOMC Statement, September

Fast out the starting blocks; we expect further 50s soon.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, August

Consistent with another quarter of brisk growth in consumption, but slower growth lies ahead

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US PPI, August 2024

PPI and CPI data suggest the August core PCE rose by about 0.14%, sustaining the slowdown.

Samuel TombsUS

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, August 2024

• In one line: The PMI signals faster growth and slower inflation, but the employment balances will worry the MPC.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, July 2024

• In one line: A mixed bag for the MPC as inflation slows but employment and business confidence surge.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, June 2024

• In one line: The PMI fall is an election-related blip, the UK is growing fine.

Samuel TombsUK

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, May

A gradual recovery is taking hold, but manufacturing is too small to alter the bigger picture.

Samuel TombsUS

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, April 2024

• In one line: The PMI points to growth well in excess of MPC forecasts and robust inflation pressure.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, May 2024

• In one line: Strong April services inflation was just a flash in the pan according to the PMI.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, March 2024

• In one line: Fractionally weaker PMI still signals solid recovery and growth beating MPC forecasts.

Samuel TombsUK

PM Datanote: US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, March

Still consistent with resilient growth in consumption, for now

Samuel TombsUS