Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Samuel Tombs

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, August

Consistent with another quarter of brisk growth in consumption, but slower growth lies ahead

Samuel TombsUS

18 September 2024 US Monitor 25bp is more likely than 50; the Fed is set to forecast 100bp this year

  • A 25bp easing today is slightly more likely than a 50bp, but markets will care more about the dotplot. 
  • The Committee likely will forecast 100bp of easing this year, but less than markets expect in 2025.
  • August retail sales point to strong consumption growth in Q3; but the outlook is dimming.

Samuel TombsUS

17 September 2024 US Monitor Homebase data remain implausibly strong; we are looking elsewhere

  • Homebase data point to rapid growth in private payrolls in September, but they are deeply flawed.
  • Hospitality firms dominate the sample, and we have too little data to make good calendar adjustments.
  • Data from Visa and Opentable signal that the control measure of retail sales rose further in August.

Samuel TombsUS

16 September 2024 US Monitor Households' balance sheets: Strong at first glance, fragile on closer look

  • Households have spent all their “excess” savings; liquid assets returned to their long-run trend in Q2.
  • Bank deposits are more unevenly distributed than in the 2010s; rising unemployment will lift saving.
  • Fed easing will be less stimulative than usual, due to mortgage refinancing during the pandemic.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US PPI, August 2024

PPI and CPI data suggest the August core PCE rose by about 0.14%, sustaining the slowdown.

Samuel TombsUS

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, August 2024

  • In one line: The PMI signals faster growth and slower inflation, but the employment balances will worry the MPC.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, July 2024

  • In one line: A mixed bag for the MPC as inflation slows but employment and business confidence surge.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, June 2024

  • In one line: The PMI fall is an election-related blip, the UK is growing fine.

Samuel TombsUK

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, May

A gradual recovery is taking hold, but manufacturing is too small to alter the bigger picture.

Samuel TombsUS

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, April 2024

  • In one line: The PMI points to growth well in excess of MPC forecasts and robust inflation pressure.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, May 2024

  • In one line: Strong April services inflation was just a flash in the pan according to the PMI.

Samuel TombsUK

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Keywords for: Publications

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence