Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Samuel Tombs
Looser labour market will spur more Fed easing...
but tariff-led inflation will slow the pace, soon
Samuel TombsUS
- A 25bp easing this week is nailed-on, but recent data suggest a slower pace of rate reductions ahead.
- The median FOMC participant likely will project 75bp total easing next year, 25bp less than in September.
- The Fed is still too optimistic about the labor market; 100bp is our base case, but inflation risk is rising.
Samuel TombsUS
- Ignore PPI egg-flation; components relevant for the core PCE were soft, implying a mere 0.13% increase.
- The PPI data also point to a further decline in inflation in core services ex-rent in Q1.
- Low initial jobless claims paint an overly rosy picture of the labor market, given hiring is so weak.
Samuel TombsUS
Core PCE components signal a mere 0.13% November increase.
Samuel TombsUS
- The 0.3% rise in the core CPI was powered by jumps in vehicle and hotel room prices, which are volatile...
- ...These components have a much smaller weight in the core PCE, which likely rose by just 0.2%.
- Expect 0.2% core PCE prints in December and January, but tariffs threaten to upend the benign trend.
Samuel TombsUS
Pointing to a 0.2% core PCE print; the FOMC can ease again with a clear conscience.
Samuel TombsUS
- The recent re-acceleration in growth in AHE looks like noise; few other timely gauges are picking up.
- Most reliable indicators of labor demand point to underlying wage growth falling below 4% soon.
- Wage growth won’t hold up Fed easing, provided Mr.Trump’s immigration bark is worse than his bite.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 0.3% rise in the November core CPI, leaving the inflation rate unchanged since June.
- Hotel and auto insurance prices likely picked up; residual seasonality threatens other services prices.
- The FOMC will ease policy again next week, but November data will bolster case for a January pause.
Samuel TombsUS
- Rising stock prices and other surveys point to a pickup in the Michigan confidence index this month...
- ...But a renewed rise in medium-term inflation expectations risks causing a headache for the Fed.
- A rise in the unemployment rate in November is still signalled by revised continuing claims data.
Samuel TombsUS
- November's meager rebound in payrolls implies the trend still is slowing; revisions will worsen the picture.
- The rise in NFIB's hiring intentions index is politics induced noise; demand for new staff is very weak.
- The unemployment rate is on a steady rising trend; an immigration rush before new rules will reinforce it.
Samuel TombsUS
- Continuing claims data, after revisions, are a good guide to the trend in short-term unemployment...
- ...But unemployment is more broadly defined and is subject to large sampling error; noise can dominate.
- Residential construction payrolls look likely to plunge, given the ongoing slump in homebuilding.
Samuel TombsUS
The first estimate of job postings is noisy; labor demand is still weakening.
Samuel TombsUS
- Ignore the pick-up in job openings; less volatile data from Indeed point to an ongoing downward trend.
- Low net hiring throughout October suggests payroll growth slowed primarily due to underlying weakness.
- ADP's data is a useless guide to the official estimate of private payrolls, including for every specific sector.
Samuel TombsUS
- Downward revisions to payrolls have been biggest in sectors with above-average shares of small firms.
- ADP and JOLTS data also suggest small businesses have slowed hiring more than large corporations.
- The manufacturing sector is showing signs of life, but major headwinds remain.
Samuel TombsUS
- Expect an unconvincing 250K gain in November jobs; October weakness was more than Milton and strikes.
- The low response rate for October's estimate adds to uncertainty over the size of November's recovery...
- ...But household survey and claims data also suggest October’s slowing had little to do with bad weather.
Samuel TombsUS
Revisions reveal a weaker trend in household income growth and a lower saving rate.
Samuel TombsUS
Low initial claims still consistent with rising unemployment, given very muted hiring.
Samuel TombsUS
Mirroring the late 2016 surge, when spending growth was unaffected.
Samuel TombsUS
- Trade re-routing and retailer margin compression likely will soften the tariff blow to consumer prices...
- ...Nevertheless, Mr. Trump's latest plans likely would lift the headline PCE deflator by a hefty 0.5% or so.
- Tariff “front-running” by companies looks set to step up soon, probably dragging slightly on GDP growth.
Samuel TombsUS
- Payrolls usually have been a better guide to the final GDP estimate one quarter ahead than current GDP...
- ...So the outlook for Q4 GDP likely is better signalled by the Q3 slowing in payrolls than still-strong GDP.
- Q4 consumption likely started strongly in October, but fading income growth is a troubling omen.
Samuel TombsUS
