Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Samuel Tombs
Boosted partly by temporary supply chain disruption; core services inflation is still falling.
Samuel TombsUS
- Labor market data are weak enough for the FOMC to ease by another 25bp today...
- ...But tariffs likely will keep core PCE inflation above 2%, so we now look for more gradual easing in 2025.
- Much of Mr. Trump’s agenda, however, will depress GDP growth, keeping the terminal rate low.
Samuel TombsUS
- Donald Trump’s migration plans would hit growth in GDP and employment and likely push up inflation...
- ...But his campaign’s most extreme proposals for mass deportations seem unlikely to materialize.
- Ending election spending will depress consumption growth this winter, but leave jobs largely unaffected.
Samuel TombsUS
- We think that a 10pp jump in the effective tariff rate would boost the core PCE deflator by about 0.8pp.
- The experience of past tariffs suggests exporters will maintain prices and retailers absorb little of the cost.
- Inflation expectations are above target-consistent levels; the Fed can’t ignore the tariffs this time.
Samuel TombsUS
- The latest claims data suggest the hit to NFP from Hurricanes Helene and Milton was relatively small.
- September’s hefty rise in the core PCE deflator will be a blip; October’s storm-related boost will be small.
- Job market loosening points to lower core inflation in 2025, but Mr. Trump’s tariffs would upend that story.
Samuel TombsUS
