Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Brazil’s COPOM raised the Selic rate to 10.75% amid rising inflation risks and economic resilience.
- The market expects further rate hikes, but we see rates on hold as economic activity is faltering.
- Argentina’s GDP continued to fall in Q2 due to Mr. Milei’s reform efforts to put the economy on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Fiscal and policy challenges
- Mexico — Judicial reforms heighten political risk
- Colombia — Political turmoil clouds the economic outlook
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Argentina’s inflation battle is far from over, despite some visible improvements.
- The government’s economic strategy will need to evolve to ensure lasting disinflation.
- The 2025 budget targets ambitious inflation goals amid economic uncertainty and market disparities.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BCRP cut rates to 5.25%, maintaining a cautious approach amid inflation stabilisation and global risks.
- Real interest rates remain restrictive, despite easing, as inflation expectations align with the target.
- The narrowing rate differential with the Fed poses currency risk, but pressures are likely temporary.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The COPOM has a tough rate decision amid rising inflation expectations, and elevated policy risk.
- Mixed economic data highlight resilient services growth, but the industrial recovery remains fragile.
- New BCB leadership under Gabriel Galípolo brings uncertainty to future policy and inflation-targeting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A decent performance in early Q3, but tight financial conditions remain a threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s manufacturing struggles continue, as global demand and the outlook weaken.
- Political risk and judicial reforms spark market fears, threatening the industrial and capex recovery.
- Nearshoring benefits are delayed, and tight financial conditions and uncertainty weigh on manufacturing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico — Headwinds amid reform uncertainty
- Colombia — Signs of recovery despite many headwinds
- Peru — Resilient despite global noise
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Subdued pressures in August, but rising expectations cloud the near-term outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Subdued pressures in August, but rising expectations cloud the near-term outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s inflation remains contained, but fiscal uncertainty and BRL depreciation are worrying.
- Food and energy prices provide temporary relief amid rising inflation expectations and policy noise.
- Colombia’s inflation has fallen sharply, strengthening the case for accelerated rate cuts from BanRep.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Finally falling at the headline level, but politics now a key risk.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Finally falling at the headline level, but politics now a key risk.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Headline inflation in Mexico moderated in August, but political risk and the MXN raise concerns.
- AMLO’s populist plans threaten to overshadow the improving inflation outlook via an MXN sell-off.
- The labour market is weakening, as formal job growth slows and informal employment dominates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Supporting BCCh’s cautious easing stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial production declined in July following a solid H1, and the outlook is now cautious.
- A weaker trade surplus and rising import demand point to mounting external pressures.
- Chile’s inflation rose in August; food and housing prices led the increase, due to temporary shocks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BCCh resumed its easing, reflecting weaker growth and stable inflation expectations.
- The Bank signalled a faster path to neutral, in Q2 2025, acknowledging weaker domestic demand.
- We expect further rate cuts, to 5% by late Q4 and 4% by Q2 2025, but uncertainty is elevated.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s GDP surged 1.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, driven by strong industrial and service sector growth.
- Labour-market strength and government spending bolstered the economic recovery in H1…
- …But challenges loom: fiscal pressures and weakening indicators signal a potential slowdown.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
