Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Brazil’s industrial output is weak in Q1, due to tight financing conditions and despite some bright spots.
- Rising business confidence signals manufacturing will gain momentum in Q2.
- The external accounts remain robust; the 12-month trade surplus is at historic highs…will this continue?
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A busy week for Andean economies amid economic and political developments.
- Chile’s central bank maintained its stance of gradual easing and flagged inflation risks.
- Upward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts in the IPoM point to a smoother easing path ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Domestic and external factors weighing
- Mexican Peso — Outperforming amid attractive carry
- Colombian Peso — Attractive carry, supportive oil dynamics
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s recovery remains on a solid footing, aided by improving domestic and external conditions.
- The performance is encouraging, but caution is warranted, as the upturn could still face headwinds.
- The good start to the year won’t stop the BCCh cutting rates further, which is still badly needed.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Underlying conditions are improving.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s jobless rate continues to fall, and leading indicators point to a good performance in Q2.
- This improvement will leave the COPOM uneasy, but we believe conditions will stabilise in the near future.
- In his first 100 days in office, Milei tackled the daunting task of addressing Argentina’s problems.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING AND DISINFLATION IS CONTINUING…
- …ENABLING CENTRAL BANKS TO PURSUE FURTHER RATE CUTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian inflation overshot in March due to elevated food prices, yet core pressures are stable.
- We expect disinflation to gather momentum in Q2 as weather conditions ameliorate.
- The COPOM meeting minutes hint at further rate reductions of 50bp in May and possibly June.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s BanRep ramped up the easing pace to 50bp, taking rates to a still-eye-watering 12.25%.
- The March decision was a divided vote, with future rate cuts expected to be data-dependent.
- BanRep will have some flexibility, given lower inflation, better external conditions and weak GDP.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Poor economic activity will put a lid on inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- The improving inflationary outlook has allowed Banxico to start an easing cycle, by 25bp to 11.00%.
- The forward guidance continues to indicate the potential for further cuts, depending on the data.
- The room for policy easing at the next meetings remains wide open, as inflation will continue to fall.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The Board exercises caution, as forward guidance is limited to one meeting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor start to the year, but conditions will improve soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The Board exercises caution, as forward guidance is limited to one meeting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- Brazil’s COPOM voted unanimously to cut the Selic rate by 50bp, as expected, but has exercised caution.
- The forward guidance has been limited to one meeting ahead, due to increased uncertainty.
- A further 50bp rate cut in May is likely, with subsequent decisions contingent on the data.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula’s cabinet meeting to address issues
- Argentina — Senate rejects mega-decree
- Colombia — Petro wants a new constitution
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economy started the year strongly, despite the prevailing high interest rates.
- Private consumption, especially services, is strengthening, offsetting the industrial sector’s sluggishness.
- We expect the COPOM to cut the Selic rate by another 50bp today and retain its dovish stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economy had a poor end to 2023, due to still-high interest rates and uneven consumer demand…
- …But the big picture is of an economy gradually gathering speed, and the outlook is upbeat.
- The recovery will likely continue this year, accompanied by healthy external accounts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The significant reduction in LatAm’s current account deficit last year appears promising…
- …But it was primarily due to weaker domestic demand; exports showed only modest resilience.
- The deficit is likely to widen again as the economy recovers, but better global demand will offset the hit.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America