Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: Activity loses momentum in August due mainly to weak mining.
- In one line: Activity loses momentum in August due mainly to weak mining.
- Split in BanRep’s Board highlights tension between resilient domestic demand and stubborn inflation.
- Loss of IMF credit line underscores fiscal fragility, fuelling market concerns over Colombia’s credibility.
- Minimum wage talks risk entrenching inflation, limiting BanRep’s scope for near-term easing.
LATAM ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS POLICY STAYS RESTRICTIVE…
- …DISINFLATION ADVANCES, BUT CORE PRESSURES CLOUD OUTLOOK
- In one line: Retail and manufacturing support growth, labour market improving at the margin.
- Brazilian Real — Gains fade after early rally
- Mexican Peso — Resilient, but facing resistance
- Argentinian Peso — Volatility as political noise builds
- Economic activity in Argentina contracts again as fiscal constraints and political instability weigh…
- …The US backstop boosts stability, but the October mid-term elections will test the credibility of reforms.
- A resilient labour market in Brazil masks cooling momentum, with job creation fading.
- Import growth is far outpacing exports in Brazil, as the strong BRL and Chinese goods shift trade flows.
- High reserves and slowing demand are buffers, but financing gaps leave Brazil vulnerable to shocks.
- Mexico’s labour market is weakening, with formal job creation stalling, wages rising and capex subdued.
- Monetary policy in Mexico is shifting cautiously, as inflation is sticky and growth prospects weaker.
- The trade deficit widened in August due to the oil sector and tariff-related external uncertainty.
- MXN appreciation and USMCA compliance support stability, despite ongoing external and fiscal risks.
- In one line: Inflation benign despite September uptick.
- In one line: Inflation steady, Banxico set to ease.
- Brazil’s inflation is rising modestly in September, reinforcing BCB’s cautious stance.
- BCB’s report highlighted sticky services inflation, a positive output gap, and delayed rate normalisation.
- Banxico continues its cautious easing as inflation softens, but fragile growth and external risks persist.
- Mexico’s industrial and services activity fell sharply in July, confirming fragile momentum ahead in H2.
- Retail sales show modest resilience, but tight credit and a weakening job market weigh on consumption.
- US support is stabilising the Argentinian peso for the moment, but structural fragilities still loom.
- Core services inflation remains sticky in Mexico, keeping Banxico’s easing gradual.
- External drivers support activity, while domestic demand and capex continue to struggle.
- Fiscal prudence and stable MXN provide cover for gradual easing, but trade risks remain elevated.
- Services and consumption drive growth in Colombia, but weak exports and capex are still limiting.
- Fiscal credibility deteriorates as deficits widen, and the Petro government suspends key safeguards.
- Policy options narrow as inflation expectations rise and political risk builds ahead of the 2026 elections.
- Copom holds the Selic rate steady, signalling vigilance, but hinting peak rates are now behind us.
- A firmer BRL and easing inflation expectations reinforce the case for gradual cuts from December.
- Recovery stalls in Argentina as demand weakens, credit fades, and recession risks rise.
- Brazil — Noise driven by US tariffs and Bolsonaro fallout
- Mexico — Sovereignty, trade and security
- Colombia — Tensions rise ahead of 2026 vote
- Mexico’s industrial output plunged in July, with manufacturing and construction the key drags.
- Tentative stabilisation emerges as PMI improves, but trade noise and weak confidence keep risks elevated.
- Peru’s BCRP trims rates toward neutral as inflation eases and activity is resilient; risks still loom, though.
- Brazil’s IBC-BR fell again in July, confirming a poor start to Q3 amid broad sectoral weakness.
- Retail and services are slowing as high borrowing costs erode resilience, despite job market support.
- Copom set to hold Selic rate at 15%, signalling prolonged tight policy amid sticky inflation.
- Markets reeled as political setback exposed fragility in Argentina’s macro backdrop and reform credibility.
- Inflation is slowing, but ARS pressure, weak activity, and tight reserves complicate policy execution.
- October elections will test Milei’s mandate and determine the durability of his economic program.
