Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Mexico’s broad-based decline in growth in Q1 reflects weakening consumption and capex.
- A temporary Q2 rebound driven by the World Cup and seasonal factors will not sustain stronger growth.
- Limited monetary easing and fragile fiscal dynamics constrain policy support; downside risks prevail.
- In one line: Activity is stabilizing at the margin, but the industrial sector remains a clear drag.
- In one line: Activity is stabilizing at the margin, but the industrial sector remains a clear drag.
- BanRep’s unanimous hold risks misinterpretation as inflation rises; the policy stance is behind the curve.
- Rising expectations and resilient demand expose insufficient tightening, reinforcing the need for more.
- Fiscal slippage and market repricing tighten conditions independently, increasing pressure ahead.
- In one line: BanRep pauses, but credibility questions linger.
- In one line: BanRep pauses, but credibility questions linger.
OIL SHOCK FEEDS INTO INFLATION, DELAYING EASING CYCLES
- DISINFLATION STALLS, CENTRAL BANKS TURN MORE CAUTIOUS
- In one line: Activity contracted sharply in Q1, and the outlook is difficult.
- In one line: Activity contracted sharply in Q1, and the outlook is difficult.
- In one line: Copom cuts, but rising inflation keeps the easing cycle cautious.
- Brazil’s COPOM continued its cautious easing, as rising inflation risk limits scope for greater action…
- …The oil shock and fiscal uncertainty complicate the policy outlook, reinforcing the need for gradual cuts.
- Oil-related inflation risks rise, while weaker domestic activity keeps BCCh firmly in wait-and-see mode.
- In one line: The oil shock is now feeding through more forcefully into headline inflation.
- Brazil’s inflation story is shifting; external shocks are driving a renewed increase in prices.
- The key challenge now is to stop a temporary shock becoming persistent; the COPOM will be cautious.
- Exports are surging in Mexico on non-manufacturing strength, but weak capex limits broader gains.
- Activity is weakening in Argentina, with domestic sectors lagging behind primary sectors.
- Growth is becoming less labour-intensive; external sectors are solid while domestic demand is subdued.
- The export-led recovery looks sustainable, but weak consumption and capex mean uneven growth in Q2.
- In one line: Labour market holds up, but activity is weakening.
- In one line: Labour market holds up, but activity is weakening.
- In one line: Disinflation is slow, and demand is beginning to weaken.
- IGAE data in Mexico confirm slowing growth, with industry weak and services losing support.
- Labour market remains tight, but employment growth slows as activity weakens and capex stays subdued.
- Banxico will ease gradually, as weaker growth builds slack but inflation keeps policy restrictive.
- Inflation continues to ease in Mexico, but core pressures are sticky and non-core volatility persists.
- Retail sales are weakening, with tighter financial conditions and remittances weighing on households.
- Banxico will ease cautiously as slower growth supports cuts but persistent inflation limits the pace.
- Consumption is driving activity in Colombia, but it is concentrated in durable goods and sensitive to rates.
- Industry and primary sectors remain weak, highlighting structural issues and fragile growth dynamics.
- Tighter financial conditions will weigh on demand, with the slowdown led by key consumption segments.
