- In one line: A poor end to the year, but the details are less grim than the headline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A poor end to the year, but the details are less grim than the headline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Sluggish start to the year as headwinds bite
- Mexico — Inflation, Banxico and the Fed
- Colombia — Reduced political risk is a boost, for now
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Industrial production growth in Mexico slowed sharply towards the end of last year.
- Some leading indicators point to still-difficult times ahead; external conditions will remain a drag in H1.
- The miserable inflation story continues in Argentina but is finally showing signs of improvement, just.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Rapid disinflation in Colombia is paving the way for bigger rate cuts from a still-cautious BanRep.
- The effect of El Niño and the large minimum wage increase will be offset by sluggish domestic demand.
- Consumer confidence is on the mend, thanks to the COP’s resilience, lower inflation and interest rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP cut the policy rate by the usual 25bp to 6.25%, as inflation continues to fall rapidly.
- The Bank has ample room for manoeuvre, but bolder action is limited for now by the PEN sell-off.
- Sluggish economic growth and challenging external conditions are testing the country’s fiscal resilience.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- At last Banxico has opened the door to interest rate cuts, as early as next month.
- Headline inflation has surprised to the upside recently, but due to the volatile non-core component.
- Core disinflation is on track and economic activity is slowing rapidly; Banxico is already behind the curve.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Incompatible with prior data, but the downtrend is on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Incompatible with prior data, but the downtrend is on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Core pressures continue to ease.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- The El Niño effect is pushing prices of key foods higher, but core pressures remain under control.
- Brazil’s disinflation is on track, despite the headline number surprising to the upside in January.
- Food prices are also causing trouble in Chile, and methodology changes have led to elevated noise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A terrible end to the year, but conditions will likely improve in Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Fundamentals supportive
- Colombian Peso — Shielded by high carry
- Chilean Peso — Lower carry still the key drag
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America