Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: Inflation falls again; BCCh likely to cut rates.
- Brazil — New highs, but risks cloud the outlook
- Mexico — Rally cools as policy risks resurface
- Chile — IPSA steadies post-rally, with upside scope
- Chile’s CPI drop strengthens the case for a July rate cut, as disinflation in key categories gains traction.
- Fading shocks and a stronger CLP support disinflation; BCCh signals rates are moving towards neutral.
- Colombia’s inflation has fallen below 5%, but sticky services and fiscal noise keep BanRep cautious.
- Mexico’s private consumption showed resilience in early Q2, but high interest rates weigh heavily.
- Capex continues to fall sharply amid trade-policy uncertainty and low business confidence.
- External demand remains the main support for growth, as domestic momentum weakens further.
- Durable and capital goods output fell sharply in Brazil, highlighting weakness in domestic demand.
- Business sentiment and PMIs deteriorated further in June, indicating weaker output in coming quarters.
- Stable inflation and anchored expectations give BCRP room to stay neutral amid external volatility.
- In one line: Manufacturing slumps as mining props up output.
- In one line: Growth holding up, but momentum set to slow in H2.
- In one line: Growth holding up, but momentum set to slow in H2.
- Brazilian Real — Rebound tests fiscal resolve
- Mexican Peso — Rally faces growing headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Currency strength facing fiscal test
INCREASED GEOPOLITICAL RISK…
- …FORCING SOME CENTRAL BANKS TO MOVE TO THE SIDELINES
- Growth momentum is fading in Chile as temporary drivers wane and consumption stabilises.
- Industrial production is still strong, led by mining, but job-market weakness remains a threat.
- Political polarisation and election uncertainty are rising, posing new risks to policy and capex.
- Deep BanRep Board divisions and sticky inflation expectations are delaying further rate cuts.
- Rising fiscal deficits and political noise are under- mining policy credibility and investor confidence.
- Stronger growth gives limited relief as inflation risks and external pressures continue to build.
- In one line: Banxico cuts again, but rising inflation and a split Board signal a slower, more cautious easing cycle ahead.
- In one line: Banxico cuts again, but rising inflation and a split Board signal a slower, more cautious easing cycle ahead.
- Banxico cut, but one dissenting vote signals caution as inflation expectations drift further from the target.
- Forward guidance was softer; the Board dropped the reference to steady cuts, indicating a possible pause.
- Weak domestic demand supports disinflation; real rates remain well above neutral.
- In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.
- Banxico cuts rates, but rising inflation and Board split signal slower, more cautious easing ahead.
- Disinflation is emerging in Brazil, but policy is still tight amid lingering core pressures and fiscal uncertainty…
- …The Selic will likely be held at 15%, as the BCB sees easing risks outweighing fragile disinflation.
- In one line: Benign inflation print supports a cautious Banxico rate cut.
- The benign inflation report supports a 50bp cut, but a divided Banxico will likely slow the easing pace in H2.
- Services inflation is sticky; housing, wage and food costs are delaying disinflation despite a MXN rebound.
- Private demand and capex lead growth in Argentina, but external imbalances and fiscal risks remain high.
- In one line: Solid start to Q2, but consumption faces headwinds.
