- In one line: A modest gain, in contrast to sectoral data.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A modest gain, in contrast to sectoral data.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Tighter financial conditions are starting to limit economic activity in Brazil, as the IBC-BR index notes.
- We think conditions will deteriorate in the short run; this is corroborated by recent survey data.
- Peru’s recovery is continuing; it will be the top performer in LatAm in 2025, despite political issues.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Fiscal issues to remain a drag
- Mexico — A cautiously optimistic outlook
- Colombia — Monetary policy easing will be a support
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s headline disinflation paused in December, but the core improved.
- High fiscal uncertainty and a huge minimum-wage increase complicate BanRep’s rate-cutting ability.
- The government must tackle the fiscal deficit, rising debt and reform issues to allow BanRep to act freely.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BCRP cut the reference rate by 25bp to 4.75%; the easing cycle is approaching its conclusion.
- One final quarter-point rate cut will come soon, unless inflation expectations decline significantly.
- Mexico’s industrial sector faces ongoing issues; its future is dependent on potential Trump 2.0 policies.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor start to Q4, and the near-term outlook is grim.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest cut; approaching the end of the easing cycle.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A modest cut; approaching the end of the easing cycle.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest downtick in late Q4, but the outlook is grim.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A modest downtick in late Q4, but the outlook is grim.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s headline inflation ended 2024 benignly, but the outlook is difficult, demanding urgent action.
- Fiscal solutions are needed, even if slowing activity and higher interest rates will contain inflation.
- The retail and industrial sectors face increasing hurdles, as November’s data highlight.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Under pressure due to tight financial conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Undershooting expectations; a relief for the BCCh.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Undershooting expectations; a relief for the BCCh.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- December inflation data for Mexico and Chile suggest their central banks will remain cautious in Q1.
- Headline inflation in Mexico fell to the lowest level since 2021, but core inflation edged up in late Q4.
- Chile’s underlying disinflation trend continued in December, but the CLP sell-off is a near-term threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Fiscal concerns and global uncertainty
- Colombian Peso — Starting Q1 on a stronger footing
- Chilean Peso — Struggling amid global risks
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
