Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

17 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Mr. Draghi's EU competitiveness report clashes with new fiscal rules

  • Mr. Draghi's report on European competitiveness could help Italy and France in their EDP negotiations. 
  • We agree with Mr. Draghi's broad conclusions, but he is too upbeat on productivity and inflation. 
  • EZ hourly labour cost growth remained high in Q2, but stagnant profits point to lower inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, August 2024

In one line: Held down by falling energy inflation; the core firmed.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 September 2024 EZ Monitor ECB in a decent position ahead of tricky Q4 decisions

  • One more ECB rate cut this year is a good baseline, but the probability of two has increased.
  • Surveys point to downside risks for core inflation in France, but we still look for a rebound in Q4.
  • The misery in EZ manufacturing continued at the start of Q3, despite a boost from Ireland.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, September

In one line: As expected; plenty to talk about on the press conference. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, September

In one line: As expected; plenty to talk about on the press conference. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor "Que sera sera"; Ms. Lagarde is mute on the ECB's next move

  • The ECB cut by 25bp as expected; an October cut is now a tall order, but a December cut is back on. 
  • The rise in the ECB’s core inflation forecast will prevent the Bank from being mugged by reality in Q4. 
  • Early signs show that the ECB is noticing the sustained weakness in EZ domestic demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Germany's economy teetering on the brink of recession, again

  • Germany’s economy is now in recession, judging by the trend in investment and survey data…
  • …But we think rising consumers’ spending will just about keep the economy’s head above water in Q3.
  • We’re lowering our German GDP growth forecasts for Q3, Q4 and Q1 by a cumulative 0.3pp.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor All set for a second 25bp rate cut from the ECB on Thursday

  • The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, as widely expected, but what happens in Q4? 
  • We see a higher chance than markets of an October cut, and a lower probability of December easing. 
  • Will the ECB lift its Q4 core inflation forecasts this week? We think so, but how far?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 September 2024 EZ Monitor Friday's data offer more reasons for further ECB rate cuts

  • EZ GDP rose less than expected in Q2, mainly due to downward revisions to French and Irish GDP.
  • Consumption and investment held back growth, while net trade did all the heavy lifting.
  • Compensation-per-employee growth eased, in line with other measures of wage growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor France's budget deficit to barely shrink this year; what will EC say?

  • France’s budget deficit won’t shrink much this year, but tough negotiations on the 2025 budget loom. 
  • September is a key month for budget negotiations; a hung parliament points to high risk of a stalemate. 
  • The composite PMIs for Spain and Italy, despite rising in August, point to slower GDP growth in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 September 2024 EZ Monitor ECB September rate cut is a go; October easing growing in favour

  • EZ inflation fell to its lowest since July 2021 in August, marginally above the ECB’s target...
  • ...The Bank will find it hard to justify its current restrictive stance, especially with wage growth easing.
  • We think a September rate cut is more likely than not and keep our October cut in too, for now.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

August 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

THE ECB WILL CUT INTEREST RATES TWICE MORE THIS YEAR

  • SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER LOOK MOST LIKELY TO US

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Olympic boost to the EZ PMIs, and a big drop in Q2 wage growth

  • The downturn in the EZ composite PMI was halted by the Olympics in France; only temporarily we think. 
  • The PMIs point to firming growth in services, while manufacturing is still stuck in recession. 
  • A big drop in Q2 wage growth seals the deal for a September cut, and helps our call for an October cut.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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