Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

11 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Domestic political risk returns to Eurozone financial markets

  • Europe has swung to the right in the EP elections, but not dramatically so; Greens and Liberals lost big. 
  • Snap parliamentary elections in France could well hand Marine Le Pen the job of prime minister. 
  • Would a RN government ruin the party’s chance of a successful presidential bid in 2027? Perhaps.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, EZ, Q1

In one line: Net exports did the heavy lifting, but the trend in consumption looks decent.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor The EZ economy is in the early stages of a cyclical upturn

  • A mini-boom in EZ consumption is coming, judging by the trend in real disposable income growth.
  • The inventory cycle reached a trough in Q1; gross capital formation will rebound from here.
  • Net exports soared at the start of 2024 but will likely be a drag on growth for the rest of the year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor The ECB gets a cut over the line, and we'll get another in September

  • The ECB professes allegiance to data-dependency, but a September cut is now a bit more likely. 
  • We see two more 25bp cuts, in September and December, with risks tilted towards a third, in March. 
  • For the first time since hiking, the ECB seems confident that wage growth is, in fact, slowing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor The sovereign debt downgrade in France that 'never happened'

  • The French sovereign debt rating downgrade passed without fanfare, but is it a sign of things to come? 
  • Industrial production in France rose at the start of Q2 and looks on track for a rebound after a poor Q1. 
  • The PMIs suggest a mild cyclical upswing is now underway in the Eurozone economy. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Significant cracks still visible in Germany's labour market

  • The trend in German jobless claims points to a rise in the national unemployment rate to above 6%.
  • Surveys signal a rebound in employment growth, but the trend in vacancies is still depressed.
  • Real wage growth in Germany soared at the start of 2024, but vacancies point to downside risks.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor All set for a hawkish first 25bp rate cut by the ECB this week

  • The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, but the communication will be hawkish.
  • How does the ECB stay open to further easing without pre-committing to cuts? We’re about to find out.
  • We see little change to the ECB’s near-term inflation forecasts, assuming it is omitting the May HICP.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

May 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING...

  • …BUT A JULY CUT IS OUT, AND SEPTEMBER IS AT RISK TOO

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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