Pantheon Publications

7 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation falls to zero; SNB will cut its key policy rate below 0%

• Swiss inflation fell to a lower-than-expected zero in April, with a knock-on effect on our forecasts…
• ...We now see deflation until mid-2026; the SNB will cut its policy rate below zero in June in response. 
• We look for a 50bp rate cut at the next meeting, taking the key policy rate to -0.25%.

EZ Datanote: State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany, April/March 2025

In one line: Germany CPI looks softer than we anticipated, but core inflation rose. 

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy & Germany, Q1 2025

In one line: Supporting our above-consensus EZ call. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, April 2025

In one line: HICP coming in hot. 

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, March 2025

In one line: Growth slowed in Q1 after a strong H2-24. 

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q1 2025

In one line: Barely growing, and trade uncertainty could well keep it that way in 2025. 

1 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Eurozone in rude health on the eve of the tariff shock

• The Eurozone economy was stronger in the first quarter than both we and the ECB expected. 
• The pick-up in growth will prove short-lived, as trade uncertainty bites down on investment. 
• Country data point to EZ inflation at 2.1% in April; we still see a chunky upside surprise in the core.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply & ECB Inflation Expectations, March 2025

In one line: EZ inflation expectations jumped on the eve of the tariff shock. 

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, May 2025

In one line: What tariff shock?