Pantheon Publications

7 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor A Trump presidency is inflationary, also for the Eurozone

• A Trump presidency is more of an inflation threat to the EZ economy than a growth threat.
• We’re sticking with our call for the ECB to ease by less than markets expect next year.
• Will EZ export orders jump in the final stretch of Q4 as foreign firms scramble to beat potential tariffs?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, October 2024

In one line: Poor, and it will get worse at the start of Q2. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor A Trump win would push EURUSD down, and yields up, on the day

• Sell EURUSD and bonds if you’re convinced that Mr. Trump will win Tuesday’s US election. 
• Leading indicators for EZ investment are downbeat, but growth still has room to rebound, a touch. 
• Capacity utilisation rates point to robust growth in services capex, and the inventory cycle is turning.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 November 2024 EZ Monitor SNB heading towards the zero lower bound, rapidly

• Swiss inflation surprised to the downside in October, falling to a 40-month low of just 0.6%.
• The headline will likely be further below the SNB’s call in Q4, so we now look for even more easing.
• A floor exists, however; the SNB is heading towards the zero lower bound.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

October 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

ECB DOVES HAVE THE UPPER HAND

• BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH THROUGH 50BP IN DECEMBER

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, October 2024

In one line: Subdued. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, September 2023

In one line: Back in action!

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)UK

1 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor A 50bp ECB rate cut in December drifts further into oblivion

• A trio of strong data tilts the balance of risk further in favour of a 25bp rate cut in December. 
• Core inflation was firmer than expected in October, and it will increase a touch in November too. 
• The ECB battle over the neutral rate has begun; Ms. Schnabel likely sees a relatively high number.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Q3, France

In one line: Decent, but nothing to write home about ex-Olympic boost.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone