Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)

US Jobless Claims

Underlying claims rising only slowly for now, but expect a faster deterioration ahead. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

9 August 2024 US Monitor Initial GDP data often miss the start of recessions; watch payrolls instead

  • The first estimate of GDP growth was positive at the start of the last three normal recessions...  
  • ...Payrolls provided a much better near-real time guide; they are not flashing bright red, for now.  
  • Initial claims still point to a resilient economy, but a run of higher prints this autumn remains likely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

8 August 2024 US Monitor How to separate the signal from the noise in today's jobless claims report

  • We look for a decline in initial claims to 235K, from 249K, as the boost from Hurricane Beryl wears off...
  • ...The trend in initial claims is rising, but daily Homebase employment data present no cause for panic. 
  • The latest plunge in Treasury yields likely will support housing market activity only marginally.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

7 August 2024 US Monitor Fall in stock prices to realign growth in consumers' spending with incomes

  • A 5% stock price fall usually knocks confidence enough to lower real consumer spending growth by about 0.5pp.
  • Associated falls in interest rates will do less than usual to bolster confidence, as households are less indebted.  
  • Bank lending standards are now tightening at a slower pace, but they remain very restrictive. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

7 August 2024 Global Monitor Decisive Fed easing is coming

  • US - Labor market weakening is gathering speed; decisive Fed easing is coming
  • EUROZONE - SNB will still cut twice more; EZ labour market held up in Q2
  • UK - Doves let loose... another rate cut is coming by year-end
  • CHINA+ - China’s new urbanisation plan should ramp up domestic demand
  • EM ASIA - Property price growth to remain elevated in Singapore till 2026
  • LATAM - LatAm: Divergent monetary policies highlight complex landscape

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

6 August 2024 US Monitor Emergency Fed action is an outside bet, but markets can force their hand

  • Economic and market conditions usually have been worse than now to trigger an emergency Fed meeting...
  • ...But rates are far above neutral and the next meeting is six weeks out; Mr. Powell will act if markets deteriorate.
  • July’s ISM services survey kept recession fears at bay, but it still strongly supports the case for Fed easing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Employment Report, July

This week’s Fed inaction was a mistake; the case for 50bp in September is strong. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

5 August 2024 US Monitor Labor market weakening is gathering speed; decisive Fed easing is coming

  • The deep-rooted weakness in July’s labor market data signals that the Fed has waited too long to ease.
  • Increases in the unemployment rate usually gather self-reinforcing momentum once they exceed 0.5pp.
  • We maintain our long-held call for 125bp of Fed easing this year; it’s 50/50 whether they begin with 50bp.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

2 August 2024 US Monitor Payrolls are less predictable in July, but a below-consensus print is a good bet

  • Homebase data are less useful than usual in July, but business surveys point to sluggish growth in payrolls. 
  • We see an even chance of the Sahm rule being triggered and expect a below-trend 0.2% increase in AHE.
  • Growth in unit labor costs has slowed to well below 2%, pointing to further falls in core inflation ahead.  

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

31 July 2024 Global Monitor The Bank of England will hold fire this week

  • US - Q2’s rapid growth is unsustainable; expect a slowdown ahead
  • EUROZONE - Solid Q2 GDP headline in the EZ, but the details are on the soft side
  • UK - MPC preview: Almost ready to cut interest rates, cautiously
  • CHINA+ - BoJ likely to move cautiously, mindful of fragile growth
  • EM ASIA - Should we start to worry even more about inflation in India?
  • LATAM - Trade balances improve in LatAm amid weaker currencies

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

1 August 2024 US Monitor Labor market worries grow at the Fed, leaving a September easing very likely

  • Chair Powell says a September easing “could be on the table”, now that labor market risks loom larger.  
  • Growth in employment costs slowed in Q2, and a further softening in wage growth ahead looks likely. 
  • The July ISM survey probably will show manufacturing is still treading water; claims are a wildcard today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

31 July 2024 US Monitor The Fed statement today will set up a September easing

  • The FOMC likely will say inflation progress has been better than “modest” and highlight labor market risks.
  • A September easing remains very likely; further easing this year is probable, but won’t be signalled strongly yet.
  • We expect a below-consensus increase of 0.8% in the ECI in Q2, supporting our dovish Fed view.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

30 July 2024 US Monitor Saving rate to increase as asset price growth slows and unemployment rises

  • The low personal saving rate stems from low unemployment and recent rapid growth in asset prices.
  • The saving rate will likely rise over the next year as unemployment rises and stock price growth slows.
  • Consumer confidence probably ticked up in July, but from a level consistent with soft consumption growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

29 July 2024 US Monitor Core PCE on track to return to the 2% target by mid-2025

  • June's muted core PCE deflator likely will be followed by sustained benign readings.
  • Consumption will slow further, as the labor market weakens and the savings rate creeps up.
  • July's regional Fed services surveys also support the case for a rapid easing of monetary policy.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

25 July 2024 US Monitor Expect a slower H2 after almost respectable Q2 GDP growth

  • We think GDP grew by 2.2% in Q2, but we expect a weaker second half as consumption softens.
  • A 2.7% rise in the core PCE deflator should reassure the Fed that the 3.7% spike in Q1 was a blip.
  • The further uptick in the S&P Global Composite PMI probably overstates the economy's strength. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

24 July 2024 Global Monitor Banxico will focus on core inflation, and cut rates next month

  • US - It’s much too early to make election-driven changes to macro forecasts
  • EUROZONE - The ECB is less sure about a September rate cut than markets
  • UK - Services inflation too strong for the MPC to cut rates in August
  • CHINA+ - PBoC swings into action with early rate cuts to support growth
  • EM ASIA - Malaysian 2024 GDP growth likely to beat government’s forecast
  • LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
 

Sign up for your complimentary trial

To start your complimentary trial, highlight the areas you are interested in subscribing to and click next.

United States

Eurozone

United Kingdom

China +

Emerging Asia

Latin America

Next

 
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Publications

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence