- US - How seriously should we take the PMI’s slowdown signal?
- EUROZONE - The establishment in Germany wins one last chance to get it right
- UK - Increased NICs will be manageable for firms and consumers
- CHINA+ - Policy support driving China’s credit growth; property loans cool
- EM ASIA - Not long until BI eases again, especially given Prabowo’s cuts
- LATAM - Mexico’s economic outlook worsens amid external and domestic risks
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Core PCE inflation fell in January; further progress to come
- EUROZONE - A truce in Ukraine is no panacea for still-elevated EZ energy prices
- UK - UK growth on the path to some recovery in Q1
- CHINA+ - Policy support driving China’s credit growth; property loans cool
- EM ASIA - BSP’s surprise pause won’t last long; real rates still way too high
- LATAM - Temporary disinflation in Brazil; Mexico’s industrial sector woes
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Stabilizing jobs numbers remove the need for near-term Fed easing
- EUROZONE - Another day, another tariff threat, this time on steel and aluminium
- UK - Focus on hawkish forecasts rather than two votes for a 50bp cut
- CHINA+ - China’s holiday spending is robust, but it won’t last
- EM ASIA - Malhotra’s RBI debut was both no shock and unexpectedly reassuring
- LATAM - Banxico accelerates easing, but US policy will influence the outlook
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - A growth slowdown looms, as the saving rate rebounds
- EUROZONE - The ECB can’t dodge questions on the neutral rate for much longer
- UK - MPC preview: 25bp cut, guiding to three-to-four reductions in 2025
- CHINA+ - DeepSeek puts Chinese AI on the map; a wake-up call for investors
- EM ASIA - New headwinds amid green shoots; PH won’t do much better in 2025
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - The idea of a post-election “vibes” shift is unsupported by surveys
- EUROZONE - Our highlights in a busy week: 25bp ECB cut and soft Q4 GDP data
- UK - Speaking less but saying more; MPC speech frequency declining
- CHINA+ - Surprise fall in China’s PMIs signals recovery is far from assured
- EM ASIA - India’s January PMIs a reality check for a still-rosy consensus
- LATAM - Persistent inflation pressures in Brazil; Mexico’s recovery falters
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Core inflation still likely to be lower by year-end in most tariff scenarios
- EUROZONE - The outlook for EZ inflation in Q1; a hot headline, but a soft core?
- UK - Ignore the December inflation drop; it’s still heading above 3% in April
- CHINA+ - China’s stimulus policies worked in Q4, but recovery won’t be easy
- EM ASIA - BI shrugs off IDR slump and starts 2025 with shock cut; a good move
- LATAM - Will headwinds from a protectionist US hurt the Mexican economy?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Payrolls are too noisy for December’s data to convincing signal an upturn
- EUROZONE - Will dovish Q1 inflation help bruised and battered EZ bonds?
- UK - GDP likely rebounded by 0.2% month-to-month in November
- CHINA+ - All eyes on China’s likely response to President Trump’s opening salvo
- EM ASIA - Don’t put much stock into India’s 6.4% FAE; the slowdown isn’t over
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation ends 2024 on a good note, but the outlook is dismal
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Payroll growth likely was sluggish again in December
- EUROZONE - All set for another ‘gradualist’ 25bp rate cut from the ECB
- UK - Forecast review: slow growth and fast inflation to keep MPC cautious
- CHINA+ - Korean business sentiment dives due to political crisis; trade risks rise
- EM ASIA - A few silver linings in otherwise soft December ASEAN PMI
- LATAM - Kicking off 2025 with monetary policy and economic challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - How expansionary will fiscal policy really be under President Trump?
- EUROZONE - November PMIs won’t be enough for a 50bp cut in December
- UK - Wage growth will exceed the MPC’s forecast
- CHINA+ - Japan’s core inflation is steady, despite headline dip in subsidies
- EM ASIA - BI stays on hold, spooked by Trump, but easing is far from over
- LATAM - Banxico faces challenges despite falling inflation and weak demand
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - October core PCE likely up 0.30%, but details will reassure the FOMC
- EUROZONE - What are the SNB’s options as it edges closer to a policy rate of 0%?
- UK - Mr. Trump’s tariffs will have a limited direct impact on UK GDP
- CHINA+ - China’s household spending boosted by policy; GDP growth target in reach
- EM ASIA - Don’t get carried away by Thailand’s scorching hot Q3 GDP
- LATAM - The LatAm service is on holiday this week, returning next week.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Mr. Trump’s win likely slams the door on rapid Fed normalization next year
- EUROZONE - Early elections in Germany will pave the way for looser fiscal policy
- UK - A cautious MPC will cut rates once per quarter at most
- CHINA+ - China refrains from knee-jerk response to Mr. Trump’s election win
- EM ASIA - GDP growth in Indonesia slips below 5% in Q3, as we predicted
- LATAM - LatAm central banks to adopt a hawkish stance post-US election
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - The Fed would have to react to Trump’s trade tariffs this time
- EUROZONE - A Trump win would push EURUSD down, and yields up, on the day
- UK - Ms. Reeves torches Governor Bailey’s plans for rapid rate cuts
- CHINA+ - China’s PMIs point to stimulus gradually gaining purchase
- EM ASIA - The soft patch in ASEAN manufacturing continues
- LATAM - Mexico’s economy thriving in Q3, but outlook depends on US election
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Subdued core PCE inflation and slowing ECI growth green light further material Fed easing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- US - Slow growth in October jobs will be more than a Boeing and Milton story
- EUROZONE - Mr. Trump’s 10% tariff would barely make a dent in EZ GDP
- UK - The Budget is worth 25-to-50bp on Bank Rate
- CHINA+ - Japan’s election result makes BoJ rate path more uncertain
- EM ASIA - Manufacturing single-handedly drives Singapore’s scorching Q3
- LATAM - Bad start to Q3 for inflation in Brazil and Mexico, but it should improve
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Households’ liquid assets can’t alone sustain rapid spending growth
- EUROZONE - ECB doves won this month, but easing will be gradual from here
- UK - Budget will be stimulatory, despite large tax increases
- CHINA+ - China still likely to approve further targeted fiscal support
- EM ASIA - BoT’s long overdue cut is here; a December move is touch-and-go
- LATAM - Brazil faces slowdown amid inflation, drought and capex challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Core CPI inflation still on track for 2% in 2025, despite September pick-up
- EUROZONE - The ECB will cut rates this week, but will it strike a hawkish tone?
- UK - Disposable income growth will keep consumption ticking along
- CHINA+ - China still likely to approve further targeted fiscal support
- EM ASIA - No cut—yet—but the RBI tide has turned; all eyes on Q3 GDP
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation remains benign despite electricity-related shock
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - One suspicious-looking jobs number will not distract the Fed
- EUROZONE - Bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term inflation outlook
- UK - Governor Bailey lowers the bar to consecutive rate cuts
- CHINA+ - The lessons of 2015 for assessing China’s current outlook
- EM ASIA - Vietnam’s Q3 GDP shows the economy easily shrugging of Yagi
- LATAM - Colombia’s BanRep to keep cutting rates amid soft economic recovery
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Only three indicators are useful in payroll forecasting; all are flawed
- UK -CPI inflation will be boosted by duties and school fees
- EM Asia-Thailand’s smaller cash handout will be even more trivial for growth
- EZ -October’s rate cut is on; deposit rate set to end 2024 at 3%
- LatAm - Banxico cuts rates as expected, opening door for further easing
- China+ - China’s policy shift puts growth target in reach; bold reforms lacking
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - The Fed will abandon plans for a modest, slow easing cycle
- EUROZONE - Sinking September PMIs put an October rate cut back in the frame
- UK - Services inflation close to MPC’s forecast kept rates on hold
- CHINA+ - Deep structural adjustment weighing down China’s domestic
- EM ASIA - How much can we trust the recovery in Indonesian exports?
- LATAM - Brazil’s BCB hikes Selic rate, with a hawkish tone, for now
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Households’ balance sheets: Strong at first glance, fragile on closer look
- EUROZONE - Mr. Draghi’s EU competitiveness report clashes with new fiscal rules
- UK - MPC preview: rates on hold and little new guidance
- CHINA+ - BoJ striking a hawkish tone, though inflation is likely to slow
- EM ASIA - No denying that Indonesian consumers are still under the cosh
- LATAM - Mexico’s industrial sector facing stagnation, amid major challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
