Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- US - Consumers look less resilient going into the energy price squeeze
- EUROZONE - Three scenarios for the ECB as a new energy shock hits
- UK - MPC preview: Bank Rate on hold and more cautious guidance
- CHINA+ - China’s low inflation cushions against energy-price shock
- EM ASIA - EA activity heap maps; major exporters still outperforming
- LATAM - Benign inflation in Brazil, but oil shock clouds COPOM outlook
- Peru’s inflation is rising on supply shocks; anchored expectations allow BCRP to maintain a cautious tone.
- Activity remains resilient and near potential, though energy disruption and external risks cloud the outlook.
- Policy will likely stay on hold, as uncertainty limits the scope for action, at least over the next six months.
- Economic activity in Brazil began the year on a solid footing, but the upturn is still uneven.
- Higher oil prices improve the external balance but risk reigniting inflation pressures.
- The COPOM faces a delicate balance between stabilising growth and preserving inflation credibility.
- Mexico’s industrial output fell sharply in January as key sub-sectors weakened simultaneously.
- Soft external demand, tight financial conditions and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on activity.
- Infrastructure spending and US supply-chain integration will likely support a gradual recovery in H2.
- Brazil’s February inflation confirms the disinflation trend, but the oil-price surge carries upside risk.
- Higher oil prices could delay the COPOM’s easing cycle, keeping financial conditions tight.
- Retail sales started the year strongly, but low confidence signals fragile consumption.
- Brazil — Weathering volatility; outlook still positive
- Mexico — Absorbing oil shock but holding record highs
- Chile — Supportive domestic backdrop still intact
- EUROZONE - Three scenarios for the ECB as a new energy shock hits
- UK - GDP still on track to rise by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1
- CHINA+ - China seeks to project stability, while gradually patching up domestic issues
- EM ASIA - India and Indonesia will be backed into fuel hikes, but not yet rate hikes
- LATAM - Oil shock tests LatAm assets and central banks; Chile’s delicate start
- Headline inflation in Colombia eased in February, but core and services prices continue to rise.
- The minimum-wage shock and indexation threaten to halt disinflation and keep expectations high this year.
- A fragmented Congress and competitive presidential race raise political risk premia across markets.
- In one line: Core pressures pushed inflation up slightly and the outlook is worsening.
- In one line: Core pressures pushed inflation up slightly and the outlook is worsening.
- Higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions risk reversing recent disinflation progress across LatAm.
- Banxico likely will pause easing as core inflation remains sticky and external risks intensify.
- Chile’s inflation has cooled below target, but rising oil prices and a weaker CLP now threaten the outlook.
- In one line: Inflation surprised to the downside, but upside risks are emerging.
- In one line: Inflation surprised to the downside, reinforcing Chile’s disinflation trend.
- In one line: Output rebounded in January, but the broader industrial trend remains fragile.
- Brazil’s jobless rate remains at historic lows, indicating labour demand is still far above sustainable levels.
- Real wage growth above 5% keeps services inflation sticky and limits room for rapid easing.
- Rising oil prices from Middle East tensions add upside inflation risk, impeding the COPOM’s policy path.
- Higher oil prices divide exporters and importers, as markets weigh the duration of Middle East tensions.
- The oil shock and a weak Imacec highlight Chile’s fragile growth, as manufacturing struggles…
- …Rate cuts, copper strength and fiscal consolidation shape the outlook, though geopolitics is the key risk.
- In one line: Q4 confirms stagnation as tight policy weighs on capex.
- In one line: Q4 confirms stagnation as tight policy weighs on capex.
- Brazilian Real — Risk-off shock erases February gains
- Mexican Peso — Hit by the geopolitical shock
- Chilean Peso — Middle East shock flips the narrative
- US - Soft February jobs to imply Fed will ease again midyear, despite Iran war
- EUROZONE - Markets now look for an ECB hike this year, but we doubt it
- UK - Energy prices could stop the MPC cutting more than once this year
- CHINA+ - Low Tokyo headline inflation allows BoJ to take its time on rate moves
- EM ASIA - India’s new GDP more stable and carries greater credibility
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation still benign as seasonal hits distort February print
