Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- US - Why are tariff revenues falling short of everyone’s projections?
- EUROZONE - Swiss and Italian GDP recovering; their fortunes will diverge in 2026
- UK - Delayed fiscal tightening gives the MPC little reason to cut rates more
- CHINA+ - China’s consumption promotion plan flatters to deceive
- EM ASIA - Egg on our faces for India’s Q3, but the detail is with us
- LATAM - Inflation eases further; Copom likely to cut rates in January
- In one line: Industrial recovery stalls again.
- Industrial output in Brazil disappointed across most categories, as tight financial conditions bite…
- …The PMI signals to ongoing weakness, though sentiment has steadied even as firms trim production.
- Benign price dynamics in Peru leave room for a final rate cut, potentially at next week’s meeting.
- The mining rebound and resilient domestic demand
lift activity in Chile; the near-term outlook is benign…
- …Improving sentiment and rising capex point to firmer
momentum heading into early 2026.
- Political clarity and expectations of fiscal discipline
under a Kast presidency reinforce investor confidence.
LATAM ECONOMY SLOWS AS DOMESTIC DEMAND SOFTENS
- POLITICAL NOISE AND EXTERNAL UNCERTAINTY DOMINATE
- Disinflation in Brazil is broadening across goods and services, as supply conditions remain favourable.
- A strong BRL, cooling demand, and easing core pressures will push headline inflation lower in Q1.
- Copom signals patience but improving data support the case for a cautious rate-cutting cycle soon.
- US - Rising unemployment keeps a December FOMC easing in play
- EUROZONE - Inflation still on track to keep the ECB on hold in December
- UK - Week in review: hello December MPC rate cut
- CHINA+ - China’s residential market still has a way to go until recovery
- EM ASIA - India’s record trade deficit in October mainly an import story
- LATAM - Mexico’s recovery stalls as technical recession looms in H2
- Steady core inflation and temporary non-core shocks reinforce Banxico’s
data-dependent easing.
- Retail sales resilience contrasts with softer sentiment, indicating consumption held up by easing inflation.
- Mexico’s recovery prospects hinge on lower rates, stable external conditions and subdued inflation.
- Robust domestic demand and fiscal expansion in Colombia are pushing economic activity above trend.
- Sticky services inflation and rising wage pressures are delaying a return to BanRep’s target.
- High real rates lend credibility, but fiscal strain and election dynamics keep policy firmly on hold.
- Mexico’s Q3 GDP contraction confirms momentum has stalled, with a base-effect-driven recession likely.
- Industrial weakness, soft job markets and fading public investment continue to weigh on activity.
- Lower interest rates and easing inflation will support a mild 2026 upturn, contingent on trade clarity.
- In one line: Momentum fades as mining weakens, while domestic demand holds firm.
- Brazil — Politics entering a noisy phase
- Mexico — Security tensions and USMCA risks
- Colombia — Risks rising ahead of 2026 election
- US - How much is AI contributing to the labor market slowdown?
- EUROZONE - Swiss economy shrinks more than expected in Q3; Q4 will be better
- UK - GDP headline means a rate cut, but the underlying picture is better
- CHINA+ - China’s logistics ambitions: from SF Express to the Northeast Passage
- EM ASIA - Inventories make Thailand’s Q3 GDP look worse than it actually was
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy slowing rapidly in Q3; Chile’s first round fragmented
- Chile’s election showed right-leaning voters rallying behind Kast, giving him an advantage in the run-off…
- …While the left will be limited by its narrow base, struggling to broaden support beyond core voters.
- Q3 GDP suffered a small fall as mining disruption offset solid growth across key non-mining sectors.
- In one line: Activity slips again as headwinds build.
- In one line: Activity slips again as headwinds build.
- Brazil’s IBC-BR signals a tightening-driven slowdown, hitting industry & services; agriculture eases the pain.
- Chile’s polarised first-round election results reshape political alliances, setting the stage for the run-off.
- Peru’s BCRP held rates at 4.25%, as soft inflation and resilient activity encounter a cautious global backdrop.
- In one line: On hold, reflecting a cautious global backdrop despite continued soft inflation.
- In one line: On hold, reflecting a cautious global backdrop despite continued soft inflation.
- Colombia’s sticky services inflation, indexation pressures and wage risks limit BanRep’s options.
- The resilient domestic demand and job market are sustaining growth despite fragile external conditions.
- Fiscal uncertainty, political noise and a widening trade deficit challenge BanRep’s cautious stance into 2026.
