Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: Core pressures keep inflation near 4%, limiting Banxico’s room to ease.
- Mexico’s Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, driven by strength in services, and easing inflation.
- Retail sales and leading indicators improved, but job-market cooling tempers domestic-demand outlook.
- Banxico is pausing easing, as trade risk, fiscal tightening and sticky core inflation constrain the outlook.
- In one line: Retail sales ended 2025 on a firm footing.
- Consumption and fiscal expansion are driving activity in Colombia, while capex remains subdued.
- Imports surged ahead of weak exports, widening external deficits and exposing structural issues.
- Election uncertainty and wage shocks hinder monetary policy, prolonging tight financial conditions.
- In one line: Activity ended 2025 on a soft note, reinforcing the case for easing ahead.
- In one line: Activity ended 2025 on a soft note, reinforcing the case for easing ahead.
- Activity in Brazil ended 2025 softly, with services weakening and industry hurt by tight conditions…
- …Imminent rate cuts and fiscal support will likely steady growth, though risks remain elevated.
- A chronic lack of stability and voter disaffection cloud elections in Peru, but fundamentals are the key.
- Base effects lifted Brazil’s inflation in January, but underlying price pressures were contained…
- …The COPOM is set to begin its easing cycle in March as inflation expectations remain anchored.
- The BCRP held rates at 4.25% as inflation converges to target, but we still see room for further easing.
- US - Payrolls will slow in February, as the weather lift fades
- EUROZONE - Negative SNB rates unlikely even if inflation hits sub-zero in February
- UK - CPI preview 2: Shave our January forecast to 3.0%
- CHINA+ - China starting to recognise the need for a fresh property policy
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s export growth reaches the highest print since the 1970s
- LATAM - Our LatAm team is on annual leave. Publication will resume on February 25.
- US - January CPI likely to undershoot the consensus
- EUROZONE - ECB sets out the—unlikely, in our view—conditions for a rate cut
- UK - CPI weight changes fractionally raise our inflation forecast
- CHINA+ - PM Takaichi’s election gamble paid off, but market jitters continue
- EM ASIA - Indonesia’s ‘hot’ Q4 GDP print welcome in more ways than one
- LATAM - Banxico pauses and eyes easing in Q2; Chile inflation stays in check
- In one line: Disinflation on track despite January uptick.
- In one line: Disinflation on track despite January uptick.
- Mexican inflation stays contained but firmer core inflation justifies Banxico’s cautious pause.
- Non-core disinflation offsets tax-driven core stickiness leaving policy easing gradual in Q2.
- Colombia’s January CPI surge reflects the minimum-wage hike and the stalling convergence to target.
- Sticky core inflation and fiscal pressures prompt the first policy pause by Banxico since March 2024.
- Rate cuts will resume once inflation moderates, with credibility guiding policy calibration.
- Chile’s inflation remains well contained, despite seasonal increases across several components.
- Chile’s IMACEC rebounded, led by commerce, services and resilient domestic demand momentum.
- Falling inflation, pension-reform liquidity and easier credit conditions set a positive tone for H1.
- Banxico pauses easing as sticky core inflation and fiscal pressures delay convergence to target.
- In one line: Industrial momentum weakens; outlook remains subdued.
- Brazilian Real — Carry, and USD weakness
- Chilean Peso — Copper rally and policy credibility
- Mexican Peso — Strong start to the year, but…
- US - Rates unlikely to track a much lower path with Warsh at the Fed
- EUROZONE - No change from the ECB this week amid mixed data
- UK - GDP likely unchanged in December but activity will pick up in Q1
- CHINA+ - How Beijing is using diplomacy to expose cracks in Western alliances
- EM ASIA - Taiwan Q4 GDP hits a 21st-century high; our call was spot on
- LATAM - Brazil signals March easing; Chile holds but cuts likely ahead
- Brazil’s Q4 industrial weakness confirms a recession in the sector due to tight financial conditions.
- Sentiment has stabilised, but demand remains soft as high rates constrain manufacturing activity.
- A March rate cut will likely support a gradual recovery, but downside risks remain elevated.
- A 100bp rate hike signals alarm over inflation expectations after Colombia’s huge minimum-wage increase.
- Board divisions, fiscal slippage and fuel subsidies complicate BanRep’s efforts to restore policy credibility.
- Strong demand and tight job markets force the Bank to prioritise controlling inflation over near-term growth.
