- In one line: Sales extend their slide as headwinds mount.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation falls again; BCCh likely to cut rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Inflation falls again; BCCh likely to cut rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Markets drew the wrong conclusions from June’s labor market data
- EUROZONE - No changes to our forecasts yet, despite delay to US tariff-rate hikes
- UK - Between a rock and a hard place sits fudging the fiscal rules
- CHINA+ - Japan’s wages hit by plunging bonuses, as trade war bites
- EM ASIA - Vietnamese growth to come off the boil in H2 if GDP data turn realistic
- LATAM - Brazil’s manufacturing slumps, but mining shows resilience
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Chile’s CPI drop strengthens the case for a July rate cut, as disinflation in key categories gains traction.
- Fading shocks and a stronger CLP support disinflation; BCCh signals rates are moving towards neutral.
- Colombia’s inflation has fallen below 5%, but sticky services and fiscal noise keep BanRep cautious.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s private consumption showed resilience in early Q2, but high interest rates weigh heavily.
- Capex continues to fall sharply amid trade-policy uncertainty and low business confidence.
- External demand remains the main support for growth, as domestic momentum weakens further.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Durable and capital goods output fell sharply in Brazil, highlighting weakness in domestic demand.
- Business sentiment and PMIs deteriorated further in June, indicating weaker output in coming quarters.
- Stable inflation and anchored expectations give BCRP room to stay neutral amid external volatility.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Manufacturing slumps as mining props up output.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Growth holding up, but momentum set to slow in H2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Growth holding up, but momentum set to slow in H2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Rebound tests fiscal resolve
- Mexican Peso — Rally faces growing headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Currency strength facing fiscal test
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
INCREASED GEOPOLITICAL RISK…
- …FORCING SOME CENTRAL BANKS TO MOVE TO THE SIDELINES
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Expect soft June payrolls, and yet another set of downward revisions
- EUROZONE - June’s EZ inflation rise will more than reverse in July and August
- UK - Payroll data have gone haywire; job growth is likely improving
- CHINA+ - BoJ to sit tight as stagflation risk rears its ugly head
- EM ASIA - Hoping we’re not jinxing it…we rescind our call for SBV cuts in 2025
- LATAM - Banxico signals slower data-driven easing, as inflation risks persist
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Growth momentum is fading in Chile as temporary drivers wane and consumption stabilises.
- Industrial production is still strong, led by mining, but job-market weakness remains a threat.
- Political polarisation and election uncertainty are rising, posing new risks to policy and capex.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Deep BanRep Board divisions and sticky inflation expectations are delaying further rate cuts.
- Rising fiscal deficits and political noise are under- mining policy credibility and investor confidence.
- Stronger growth gives limited relief as inflation risks and external pressures continue to build.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Banxico cuts again, but rising inflation and a split Board signal a slower, more cautious easing cycle ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Banxico cuts again, but rising inflation and a split Board signal a slower, more cautious easing cycle ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico cut, but one dissenting vote signals caution as inflation expectations drift further from the target.
- Forward guidance was softer; the Board dropped the reference to steady cuts, indicating a possible pause.
- Weak domestic demand supports disinflation; real rates remain well above neutral.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico cuts rates, but rising inflation and Board split signal slower, more cautious easing ahead.
- Disinflation is emerging in Brazil, but policy is still tight amid lingering core pressures and fiscal uncertainty…
- …The Selic will likely be held at 15%, as the BCB sees easing risks outweighing fragile disinflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
