Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
IRAN-WAR SHOCK COMPLICATES LATAM EASING CYCLE
- OIL-DRIVEN INFLATION DELAYS POLICY NORMALISATION
- Fiscal discipline anchors stability in Argentina, but household weakness is constraining the recovery.
- Inflation remains sticky, limiting policy easing and complicating the economic upturn.
- The energy sector is supporting growth, but financial vulnerabilities are high.
- Banxico’s policy surprise reflects weaker activity, with the inflation spike considered temporary.
- External shocks from oil and tighter financial conditions raise upside risks and constrain easing.
- Disinflation is becoming more uneven; Banxico must balance supporting growth against inflation risk.
- In one line: Disinflation remains intact, but the oil shock has materially increased upside risk.
- The oil-driven inflation shock is delaying easing in Chile, and even raising the probability of tightening.
- The growth outlook has weakened as tighter financial conditions and fiscal restraint bite.
- Policy is on hold for now, but risks have tilted clearly to the hawkish side in Chile and the region as a whole.
- In one line: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile, March, 2026
- In one line: Rates on hold, policy turns cautious after Middle East oil shock.
- In one line: Inflation surprised to the upside, while activity weakened sharply at the start of the year.
- In one line: Inflation surprised to the upside, while activity weakened sharply at the start of the year.
- US - Markets are overlooking the labor market damage of the oil shock
- EUROZONE - ECB quietly endorses market expectations for hikes this year
- UK - Hawkish set of MPC minutes lowers the bar to hikes in 2026
- CHINA+ - China’s private sector starting to revive in selected areas
- EM ASIA - India should be able to stomach oil at $150 this year; main risk is 2027
- LATAM - Benign inflation in Brazil, but oil shock clouds COPOM outlook
- Food and energy shocks have driven inflation higher in Mexico, but core pressures are contained.
- Economic activity weakened sharply at the start of the year, signalling a broader loss of momentum.
- Banxico will hold rates, as inflation risks are persisting and growth slowing, reinforcing its cautious stance.
- US - How would the Fed react if oil prices soar to $150?
- EUROZONE - EZ inflation to jump to just under 3% by May; ECB will hike in response
- UK - Oil prices will need to go higher for longer to justify a rate hike
- CHINA+ - China less exposed to the oil-price jolt than Japan
- EM ASIA - India should be able to stomach oil at $150 this year; main risk is 2027
- LATAM - Energy shock tests growth, inflation and policy outlook
- Consumption remains resilient in Mexico, but softening fundamentals signal momentum will slow ahead.
- Sticky services inflation and higher energy prices limit room for Banxico to resume its easing cycle soon…
- …It will likely prioritise its credibility, delaying cuts as external risks and inflation pressures intensify.
- Consumption in Colombia remains strong, but weak capex undermines medium-term growth prospects.
- Tight financial conditions and fiscal consolidation will weigh on demand, exposing fragile growth dynamics.
- Higher oil prices offer support, but inflation pressures and policy tightening limit upside for activity.
- Brazil’s rate cut marks the start of the easing cycle, but the inflation outlook has become more uncertain.
- External shocks and oil prices will curb disinflation, reinforcing the need for gradual policy adjustment.
- The COPOM is keeping its options open, but high uncertainty limits scope for faster rate cuts ahead.
- Brazil — Election race tightens as fiscal risks mount
- Mexico — Fiscal push meets market volatility
- Colombia — Fragmentation sharpens electoral maths
- US - Consumers look less resilient going into the energy price squeeze
- EUROZONE - Three scenarios for the ECB as a new energy shock hits
- UK - MPC preview: Bank Rate on hold and more cautious guidance
- CHINA+ - China’s low inflation cushions against energy-price shock
- EM ASIA - EA activity heap maps; major exporters still outperforming
- LATAM - Benign inflation in Brazil, but oil shock clouds COPOM outlook
- Peru’s inflation is rising on supply shocks; anchored expectations allow BCRP to maintain a cautious tone.
- Activity remains resilient and near potential, though energy disruption and external risks cloud the outlook.
- Policy will likely stay on hold, as uncertainty limits the scope for action, at least over the next six months.
- Economic activity in Brazil began the year on a solid footing, but the upturn is still uneven.
- Higher oil prices improve the external balance but risk reigniting inflation pressures.
- The COPOM faces a delicate balance between stabilising growth and preserving inflation credibility.
- Mexico’s industrial output fell sharply in January as key sub-sectors weakened simultaneously.
- Soft external demand, tight financial conditions and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on activity.
- Infrastructure spending and US supply-chain integration will likely support a gradual recovery in H2.
