- In one line: Resilient at the headline level, for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The door has been left open for further easing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: The door has been left open for further easing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Resuming the downtrend, despite significant threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation has been slowing rapidly in September, reinforcing our expectations for a stable Selic rate.
- Underlying pressures are still under control, and we expect the picture to remain benign in Q4.
- The current account deficit is widening amid falling exports, resilient imports and fiscal concerns.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The downtrend continues as non-core pressures ease.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - The Fed will abandon plans for a modest, slow easing cycle
- EUROZONE - Sinking September PMIs put an October rate cut back in the frame
- UK - Services inflation close to MPC’s forecast kept rates on hold
- CHINA+ - Deep structural adjustment weighing down China’s domestic
- EM ASIA - How much can we trust the recovery in Indonesian exports?
- LATAM - Brazil’s BCB hikes Selic rate, with a hawkish tone, for now
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Mexico’s inflation decline paves the way for Banxico to cut rates at tomorrow’s meeting.
- Weak economic growth is pressuring policymakers to ease further, but political noise will remain a risk.
- Brazil’s COPOM minutes signal caution, suggesting limited rate hikes amid slowing growth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: CBI points to struggling manufacturing but it is volatile, watch the stronger PMI instead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
- Mexico’s economy has started H2 on a solid footing, as temporary shocks fade and inflation falls…
- …But manufacturing remains under pressure and formal employment growth is slowing.
- Banxico’s upcoming rate decision has to balance inflation control and policy uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy faces headwinds despite the modest recovery; policy shifts muddy the outlook.
- President Petro’s reform agenda meets political resistance, again; economic stability is at risk.
- BanRep is dealing with inflation and growth worries amid government pressure for a dovish policy shift.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A pre-emptive 25bp hike in response to persistent inflation risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: In one line: A pre-emptive 25bp hike in response to persistent inflation risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM raised the Selic rate to 10.75% amid rising inflation risks and economic resilience.
- The market expects further rate hikes, but we see rates on hold as economic activity is faltering.
- Argentina’s GDP continued to fall in Q2 due to Mr. Milei’s reform efforts to put the economy on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Fiscal and policy challenges
- Mexico — Judicial reforms heighten political risk
- Colombia — Political turmoil clouds the economic outlook
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Households’ balance sheets: Strong at first glance, fragile on closer look
- EUROZONE - Mr. Draghi’s EU competitiveness report clashes with new fiscal rules
- UK - MPC preview: rates on hold and little new guidance
- CHINA+ - BoJ striking a hawkish tone, though inflation is likely to slow
- EM ASIA - No denying that Indonesian consumers are still under the cosh
- LATAM - Mexico’s industrial sector facing stagnation, amid major challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Argentina’s inflation battle is far from over, despite some visible improvements.
- The government’s economic strategy will need to evolve to ensure lasting disinflation.
- The 2025 budget targets ambitious inflation goals amid economic uncertainty and market disparities.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BCRP cut rates to 5.25%, maintaining a cautious approach amid inflation stabilisation and global risks.
- Real interest rates remain restrictive, despite easing, as inflation expectations align with the target.
- The narrowing rate differential with the Fed poses currency risk, but pressures are likely temporary.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The COPOM has a tough rate decision amid rising inflation expectations, and elevated policy risk.
- Mixed economic data highlight resilient services growth, but the industrial recovery remains fragile.
- New BCB leadership under Gabriel Galípolo brings uncertainty to future policy and inflation-targeting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A decent performance in early Q3, but tight financial conditions remain a threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
