Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Mr. de la Espriella’s victory in Colombia cuts policy uncertainty but falls short of a strong mandate.
- Business confidence likely will improve, but capex decisions will depend on policy execution.
- Congress, fiscal constraints, political polarisation and security issues will limit scope for reforms.
- Brazil’s Copom delivered another cut, but inflation forecasts and expectations deteriorate further.
- Activity remains resilient, reducing the urgency for deeper rate cuts despite restrictive policy.
- Additional easing remains likely, though risks increasingly point towards a shallower cycle.
- In one line: Activity holds up, but signs of cooling are emerging.
- In one line: Activity holds up, but signs of cooling are emerging.
- Brazil — Security takes centre stage
- Mexico — Sovereignty push raises political risks
- Colombia — Run-off puts security centre stage
- In one line: Q2 starts weak due to tight financial conditions.
- US - Time for the real Kevin Warsh to stand up
- EUROZONE - White smoke in the US-Iran talks kicks July hike into long grass
- UK - MPC preview: another “active” hold, biased towards a hike
- CHINA+ - Chinese exports enjoy knock-on effects from AI boom
- EM ASIA - US-Iran deal; short-term neutral for Indian CPI, but good news for WPI
- LATAM - Inflation complicates Brazil’s outlook; Peru’s rate pause looks set to last
- Brazil’s retail sales fell sharply in April, with weakness concentrated in credit-sensitive categories.
- Consumer confidence and sectoral data suggest household spending is gradually losing momentum.
- Softer activity supports further easing, but inflation limits the scope for larger cuts.
- Food and regulated prices lifted Argentina’s inflation, but underlying pressures continue to ease gradually.
- Lower sovereign spreads and reserve accumulation reflect improving confidence in fiscal sustainability.
- Stable ARS demand and restrictive financial conditions should support further disinflation ahead
- In one line: Food and utilities keep inflation elevated.
- In one line: Food and utilities keep inflation elevated.
- In one line: Inflation improves, but the balance of risks remains hawkish.
- In one line: Inflation improves, but the balance of risks remains hawkish.
- Food and electricity prices pushed inflation higher in Brazil, limiting room for further monetary easing…
- …Inflation expectations are still rising, as weather and geopolitical risks threaten further inflation pressures.
- Softer inflation supports a rate pause in Peru, but risks increasingly point away from further easing.
- The rebound in Mexico’s industry eases recession fears, but manufacturing activity is far from a boom.
- Services remain Brazil’s main growth engine, supported by resilient domestic demand…
- …But persistent inflation and softer surveys suggest services growth will moderate further.
- Brazil — Fiscal worries cap upside
- Mexico — Rally pauses as investors reassess risks
- Colombia — Elections dominate the equity story
- In one line: Inflation eased in May, but persistent services inflation will keep Banxico cautious.
- In one line: Inflation eased in May, but persistent services inflation will keep Banxico cautious.
- US - Four notes of caution over the recent upturn in payrolls
- EUROZONE - ECB set to end year-long policy hiatus this week with a 25bp hike
- UK - Money and credit review: few signs of a hit to activity from Iran war
- CHINA+ - China tightens oversight of outbound investment and capital flows
- EM ASIA - War noise unlikely to stop Vietnam’s exports from flying higher in Q3
- LATAM - El Niño adds new inflation risks to LatAm, but hit differs widely
- Lower electricity tariffs and softer food prices pushed Mexico’s headline inflation back into target range.
- Persistent services inflation and housing costs continue to delay a sustained downward trend.
- Oil prices, USMCA uncertainty and El Niño keep inflation risks tilted upward.
