Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- US - Rising unemployment keeps a December FOMC easing in play
- EUROZONE - Inflation still on track to keep the ECB on hold in December
- UK - Week in review: hello December MPC rate cut
- CHINA+ - China’s residential market still has a way to go until recovery
- EM ASIA - India’s record trade deficit in October mainly an import story
- LATAM - Mexico’s recovery stalls as technical recession looms in H2
- Steady core inflation and temporary non-core shocks reinforce Banxico’s
data-dependent easing.
- Retail sales resilience contrasts with softer sentiment, indicating consumption held up by easing inflation.
- Mexico’s recovery prospects hinge on lower rates, stable external conditions and subdued inflation.
- Robust domestic demand and fiscal expansion in Colombia are pushing economic activity above trend.
- Sticky services inflation and rising wage pressures are delaying a return to BanRep’s target.
- High real rates lend credibility, but fiscal strain and election dynamics keep policy firmly on hold.
- Mexico’s Q3 GDP contraction confirms momentum has stalled, with a base-effect-driven recession likely.
- Industrial weakness, soft job markets and fading public investment continue to weigh on activity.
- Lower interest rates and easing inflation will support a mild 2026 upturn, contingent on trade clarity.
- In one line: Momentum fades as mining weakens, while domestic demand holds firm.
- Brazil — Politics entering a noisy phase
- Mexico — Security tensions and USMCA risks
- Colombia — Risks rising ahead of 2026 election
- US - How much is AI contributing to the labor market slowdown?
- EUROZONE - Swiss economy shrinks more than expected in Q3; Q4 will be better
- UK - GDP headline means a rate cut, but the underlying picture is better
- CHINA+ - China’s logistics ambitions: from SF Express to the Northeast Passage
- EM ASIA - Inventories make Thailand’s Q3 GDP look worse than it actually was
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy slowing rapidly in Q3; Chile’s first round fragmented
- Chile’s election showed right-leaning voters rallying behind Kast, giving him an advantage in the run-off…
- …While the left will be limited by its narrow base, struggling to broaden support beyond core voters.
- Q3 GDP suffered a small fall as mining disruption offset solid growth across key non-mining sectors.
- In one line: Activity slips again as headwinds build.
- In one line: Activity slips again as headwinds build.
- Brazil’s IBC-BR signals a tightening-driven slowdown, hitting industry & services; agriculture eases the pain.
- Chile’s polarised first-round election results reshape political alliances, setting the stage for the run-off.
- Peru’s BCRP held rates at 4.25%, as soft inflation and resilient activity encounter a cautious global backdrop.
- In one line: On hold, reflecting a cautious global backdrop despite continued soft inflation.
- In one line: On hold, reflecting a cautious global backdrop despite continued soft inflation.
- Colombia’s sticky services inflation, indexation pressures and wage risks limit BanRep’s options.
- The resilient domestic demand and job market are sustaining growth despite fragile external conditions.
- Fiscal uncertainty, political noise and a widening trade deficit challenge BanRep’s cautious stance into 2026.
- In one line: Weak end to Q3 confirms sluggish household demand amid tight financial conditions.
- Inflation in Brazil fell markedly in October, driven by a stronger BRL and softer domestic demand.
- Services are the main growth anchor, while retail sales have weakened due to tight credit and uncertainty.
- The hawkish hold from the COPOM prepares markets for gradual 2026 rate cuts amid ongoing risks.
- US - Tariffs unlikely to drive a big “re-shoring” of US manufacturing
- EUROZONE - Swiss GDP fell in Q3 and the economy is now likely in recession
- UK - Only 15 sleeps to go until the Budget, but firms brush off worries
- CHINA+ - China’s export growth more resilient than the headline figures suggest
- EM ASIA - Philippines’ ugly Q3 GDP long in the making; ICI will make things worse
- LATAM - Banxico cautious as core inflation stickiness curbs easing prospects
- Brazil — Rally extends as confidence builds
- Argentina — Soars on election relief, but risks ahead
- Colombia — Outlook still bright but cautious
- Flat CPI in Chile in October confirms easing inflation momentum, allowing gradual BCCh rate cuts ahead.
- Robust trade and capex offset softer consumption, maintaining Chile’s balanced growth in Q4 and Q1.
- Fiscal fragility remains a key medium-term issue, demanding renewed consolidation efforts.
- In one line: Inflation eases, pointing to softer Q4 average.
