Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: Core pressures pushed inflation up slightly and the outlook is worsening.
- In one line: Core pressures pushed inflation up slightly and the outlook is worsening.
- Higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions risk reversing recent disinflation progress across LatAm.
- Banxico likely will pause easing as core inflation remains sticky and external risks intensify.
- Chile’s inflation has cooled below target, but rising oil prices and a weaker CLP now threaten the outlook.
- In one line: Inflation surprised to the downside, but upside risks are emerging.
- In one line: Inflation surprised to the downside, reinforcing Chile’s disinflation trend.
- In one line: Output rebounded in January, but the broader industrial trend remains fragile.
- Brazil’s jobless rate remains at historic lows, indicating labour demand is still far above sustainable levels.
- Real wage growth above 5% keeps services inflation sticky and limits room for rapid easing.
- Rising oil prices from Middle East tensions add upside inflation risk, impeding the COPOM’s policy path.
- Higher oil prices divide exporters and importers, as markets weigh the duration of Middle East tensions.
- The oil shock and a weak Imacec highlight Chile’s fragile growth, as manufacturing struggles…
- …Rate cuts, copper strength and fiscal consolidation shape the outlook, though geopolitics is the key risk.
- In one line: Q4 confirms stagnation as tight policy weighs on capex.
- In one line: Q4 confirms stagnation as tight policy weighs on capex.
- Brazilian Real — Risk-off shock erases February gains
- Mexican Peso — Hit by the geopolitical shock
- Chilean Peso — Middle East shock flips the narrative
- US - Soft February jobs to imply Fed will ease again midyear, despite Iran war
- EUROZONE - Markets now look for an ECB hike this year, but we doubt it
- UK - Energy prices could stop the MPC cutting more than once this year
- CHINA+ - Low Tokyo headline inflation allows BoJ to take its time on rate moves
- EM ASIA - India’s new GDP more stable and carries greater credibility
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation still benign as seasonal hits distort February print
- Brazil’s Q4 GDP confirms minimal growth, as capex plunges and private consumption stalls.
- Exports and agribusiness cushion activity, masking weak domestic demand and an investment collapse.
- The COPOM is set to ease gradually, but the oil shock clouds the inflation and policy outlook.
- In one line: Services rebounded, partly offsetting renewed weakness in manufacturing.
- In one line: Services rebounded, partly offsetting renewed weakness in manufacturing.
- Solid growth and contained inflation underpin Peru’s resilience despite intensifying political turbulence…
- …Strong buffers anchor confidence as upcoming elections delay fiscal and capex decisions.
- The oil-price surge reshuffles the currency outlook, but for now deeper regional fallout appears limited.
LATAM ACTIVITY STABILISES AS POLICY PATHS DIVERGE
- DISINFLATION PROVES UNEVEN, WHILE POLITICAL RISK INTENSIFIES
- In one line: Activity softened at the start of the year.
- In one line: Seasonal firmness, but disinflation remains intact.
- Brazil’s IPCA-15 upside surprise reflects education and transport seasonality, not renewed pressures.
- Core trends have stabilised near target, reinforcing scope for gradual COPOM easing from this month.
- Fiscal uncertainty clouds the rate-cutting pace despite soft activity, steady prices and BRL rebound.
