- In one line: Struggling as domestic demand falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Struggling as domestic demand falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
The economy’s main engine of growth is looking a lot weaker.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: A mixed performance, with activity struggling, but the job market remains resilient for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, but rate cuts will resume soon, assuming the MXN stabilises.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Real consumption set for another 1.5% increase in Q2; a rising saving rate will slow growth further soon.
- The 0.08% core PCE print was driven by noisy components, but underlying services inflation eased too.
- We look for another sub-50 ISM manufacturing index in June; tight monetary policy is preventing a revival.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Banxico held rates at 11% amid the MXN sell-off and rising inflation but the split vote signals a dovish shift.
- Policymakers hinted at future easing, as the economy weakens and inflation falls.
- The resilient labour market could face headwinds if economic weakness persists.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS RESILIENT...
- ...BUT CHALLENGES PERSIST, PARTICULARLY ON THE POLICY FRONT
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Probably depressed marginally by Juneteenth; the trend remains upwards.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: In line with expectations despite political noise and floods.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We’re are lowering our Q2 GDP forecast to 1.0%, from 1.5%, due to May’s poor trade and orders data.
- We estimate that the core PCE deflator rose by just 0.11% in May; a run of sluggish increases beckons.
- Real consumption likely rose by 0.3% in May, with growth of less than 2% looking likely for this quarter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s inflation remains under control in June, but the COPOM is still cautious given the uncertainty.
- Argentina’s GDP plunged in Q1 amid Mr. Milei’s structural adjustments to bring the economy back on track.
- His government faces economic challenges despite high approval and efforts to curb inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Consistent with slowing consumption growth and a gently rising unemployment rate.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We look for a small dip in initial claims to 235K, due to Juneteenth, but the trend still is rising.
- May’s durable goods orders likely will point to a big drag on Q2 GDP growth from equipment investment.
- Net trade also looks set to weight heavily on Q2 growth, even if the goods trade deficit narrowed slightly in May.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
THE SLOWDOWN IS REAL, AND WILL PERSIST…
- …THE FED IS RUNNING THE RISK OF DELAYING TOO LONG
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- US - Trebling of shipping costs likely to add 0.04pp at most to core PCE inflation
- EUROZONE - EZ PMIs stumbled at the end of Q2; will they pick up again in Q3?
- UK - The MPC is itching to cut, so two rate reductions this year are likely
- CHINA+ - Japan’s stagflation conundrum; service sector at risk of stagnation
- EM ASIA - A reprieve for Singapore’s long-suffering semiconductor sector
- LATAM - Mexican economy falters amid challenges and uncertainty
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The latest services surveys point to lower underlying inflation and a further slowdown in wage growth.
- New home sales probably dipped in May, reflecting the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year.
- Conference Board confidence data signal slower spending growth and rising unemployment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Colombia’s economic activity rebounded in April, but growth momentum likely will be sluggish in H2.
- Challenges persist amid political and policy uncertainty—hindering investment—and fiscal pressures.
- The fiscal backdrop, as outlined in the MTFF, presents a complex picture of challenges and commitments.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The long decline in core goods inflation has no further to run.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
