- In one line: A soft start to Q2, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A soft start to Q2, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, as core inflation remains sticky.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold, as core inflation remains sticky.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Fed likely will have to revise up its unemployment forecast in September; the trend is rising.
- Consumers’ confidence fell again in June, despite lower gas prices and a booming stock market.
- The Empire State survey will help to assess the size of the shipping cost shock coming manufacturers’ way.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The BCRP left rates unchanged, defying expectations once again, as core inflation remains sticky in Peru.
- Muted inflation and soft economic activity will allow further policy normalisation in H2.
- Another boost for President Milei as inflation in Argentina slowed in May, undershooting expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
May core PCE likely rose just 0.11%, well below the Fed’s expectations.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
May core PCE likely rose just 0.11%, well below the Fed’s expectations.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The CPI and PPI data imply that the core PCE deflator rose by just 0.11% in May…
- …Below the 0.19% average run rate forecast by the Fed; September’s SEP update will support a rate cut.
- The Michigan sentiment index probably bounced this month, but job loss worries seem to be mounting.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- A whirlwind start for President Milei in Argentina; reforms, protests, economic turmoil…and disinflation.
- The Senate has narrowly approved a controversial bill giving him a badly needed first legislative victory.
- Brazil’s retail sales rise in April but undershoot expectations; the medium-term outlook is worsening.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
June core PCE likely rose just 0.15%; the Fed can prepare the ground for a September rate cut.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed’s hawkish dotplot is likely to have a short shelf life; the data will force faster easing than they expect.
- The May core CPI slowdown was deep-rooted; we expect just 0.20% average gains through year-end.
- CPI data signal a 0.16% rise in the core PCE deflator, but we will finalize our estimate after today’s PPI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Extending losses amid uncertainty
- Mexico — Increased political risk rattling markets
- Colombia — Struggling amid fiscal uncertainty
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Manufacturing remains under strain and the near-term outlook is difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Hit by increased food prices, due to the floods in the south.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Hit by increased food prices, due to the floods in the south.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - September easing remains a decent base case, despite May payrolls
- EUROZONE - Domestic political risk returns to Eurozone financial markets
- UK - Labour market data help the chances of an August rate cut
- CHINA+ - China’s exports turn the corner; on track for modest growth this year
- EM ASIA - An August RBI rate cut seems both so close and yet so far
- LATAM - Brazil’s economic momentum hits a speed bump after promising Q1
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The high core PCE prints in Q1 will force the Fed to revise up its Q4 forecast, and cut one easing.
- A jump in used car and vehicle insurance prices probably drove a 0.3% increase in the May core CPI...
- ...But core services CPI inflation likely slowed further, indicating monetary policy is tight enough.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US