- In one line: Under pressure on a sequential basis.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Under pressure on a sequential basis.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A landslide victory for Ms Sheinbaum.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The quits rate likely remained just below its 2015-to-19 average in April, signalling slower ECI growth ahead.
- Construction spending has stagnated this year, the boom in S&L and manufacturing spending is over.
- The ISM manufacturing slipped again in May. And a plunge in new orders signals more bad news ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Claudia Sheinbaum makes history after being elected as Mexico’s first female president.
- Ms. Sheinbaum’s victory was expected, but a potential MORENA supermajority brings uncertainty.
- The Chilean economic activity index rebounded in April, but disappointing details point to rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS SUBPAR...
- ...BUT LOW INFLATION IS ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Struggling on a sequential basis, despite the solid headline numbers.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Brazilian labour market’s resilience will continue to raise inflation concerns for policymakers.
- Robust economic activity in recent months likely will slow the disinflation process, but not for long.
- Downside risks persist for the economy in H2; tighter financial conditions will be the main drag, by far.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The spike in the core PCE deflator is over, but Fed officials will want to see more data before they relax.
- Consumers’ spending is on course for another modest 2%-ish increase in the second quarter.
- Manufacturing is in better shape than implied by the grim Chicago PMI; auto sales headed for Q2 bounce.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We expect a 0.23% rise in the core PCE deflator in April, but a rounded 0.3% print would be no great surprise.
- Real personal consumption probably rose by just 0.1%, given the drop in retail sales in April.
- Final domestic sales growth was strong in Q1, despite the low GDP headline, but that's about to change.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico is bracing for historic elections, as Claudia Sheinbaum—AMLO’s protégée—eyes the presidency.
- Financial markets anticipate a Sheinbaum victory, but uncertainties linger and a surprise could happen.
- Legislative outcomes will shape Mexico’s economic outlook amid concerns over AMLO’s interventionism.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Q1 GDP growth will be revised down sharply today, thanks mostly to weaker consumption.
- Final sales still rose at a decent pace, but momentum is fading, and the labor market will reflect the downshift.
- Jobless claims probably are trending higher; look out for a hefty drop in pending home sales.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- US - Indicators pointing to a worsening labor market still in the majority
- EUROZONE - German GDP growth will slow in Q2, but the recovery is durable
- UK - Services inflation surprise means MPC will wait until August to cut
- CHINA+ - BoK signals delay to rate cuts on rising inflation risks
- EM ASIA - Here comes the downshift in Indian GDP growth from 8%-plus
- LATAM - Banxico navigates sticky headline inflation amid slowing growth
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Brazil’s May inflation data support a 25bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on June 19, but risks linger…
- …The floods in the south of the country have had a limited impact so far, but the hit will be felt soon.
- Inflation expectations are on the rise; a further deterioration would limit the central bank’s options.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- State and local government investment spending has slowed sharply; soon it will fall outright…
- ...Both tax revenues and federal government payments to S&L are falling; cashflow is evaporating.
- The rebound in consumers' confidence likely will prove unsustainable if job growth weakens as we expect.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: On hold, but rate cuts will resume soon, assuming the MXN stabilises.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- Methodological changes do not explain all the fall in the Michigan survey measure of consumers' confidence...
- ...Fewer people expect the Fed to ease soon, while layoff fears have grown; slower spending growth lies ahead.
- Equipment investment looks set for a weak second quarter, despite better-than-expected May orders.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chile’s BCCh slowed its rate cutting pace to 50bp, citing lagged inflation pressures.
- It kept a relatively dovish tone, however, pointing to further easing in coming meetings, as FX fears ease.
- Board reaffirms data-dependent approach, highlights “clexibility” for future decisions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts ahead; data to guide pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts ahead; data to guide pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
