Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: A solid end to Q1, and the outlook is benign
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- April's slowdown in payrolls looks like real weakness; revisions likely will push the numbers down further.
- Near-zero growth in payrolls lies ahead if the NFIB survey retains its status as the best leading indicator.
- The ISM services survey has joined the growing list of surveys showing that labor demand is weakening.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: A poor end to Q1, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A poor end to Q1, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Both the Homebase data and the NFIB survey signal slower job growth in April, but the numbers are noisy.
- One softer print would not trigger a Fed response, but it would make the May number critical for markets.
- The ISM services survey likely will provide further reassurance on the underlying inflation outlook.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed likely will start easing in late Q3; LatAm policymakers will have a more difficult task ahead.
- Colombia’s BanRep met expectations with a ‘bold’ 50bp rate cut; we expect more of the same.
- Chile’s economy faced challenges at the end of Q1, yet the fundamental trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM CENTRAL BANKS ADOPT A MORE HAWKISH POSITION
- A CAUTIOUS FED AND STICKY SERVICES INFLATION ARE HURTING
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chair Powell batted away talk of a further rate hike, and hinted that labor market fears are emerging.
- Everything will change if payroll growth slows sharply; that won't happen overnight, but it is coming.
- Still no signs of a real manufacturing recovery, and inflation risks from the sector are minimal.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexican Peso — Underperforming amid risk-off
- Colombian Peso —Resilience amid gradual rate cuts
- Chilean Peso — Poised for rebound amid benign factors
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Does Chair Powell still see no signs of cracks in the labor market?
- EUROZONE - Higher GDP won’t impede first rate cut in June, as core inflation falls
- UK- Forecast Review: strong growth and stubborn services
- CHINA+ - BoJ stands fast, refusing to bow to currency-market pressure
- EM ASIA - A strong—but frankly foolish—policy response from BI
- LATAM - Mexico to hold rates amid inflation surprise and economic rebound
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The FOMC will likely take a hard line on easing today, despite abundant warnings of a weaker labor market.
- The disappointing Q1 ECI is not definitive; leading indicators signal downward pressure on wage growth.
- Ignore the ADP and JOLTS job openings today; the JOLTS quits rate matters far more.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico’s Q1 GDP shows growth momentum is slowing rapidly, amid economic concerns.
- Tighter financial conditions and a still-challenging external backdrop are real threats.
- The labour market performed well in Q1, but higher real interest rates will dent its resilience.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Year-over-year growth in the ECI likely fell below 4% in Q1, almost back to its inflation target-consistent rate.
- California fast food price rises driven by the minimum wage hike will have a microscopic impact on the CPI.
- Ignore the 3.9% Q2 growth forecast from GDPNow; its estimates are often way off this early in the quarter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: Inflation continues to fall rapidly, leaving the door open to further rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A second Trump administration apparently has plans for the Fed; none of them are good; some are wild.
- The March rise in the core PCE deflator matched expectations; muted increases are coming in Q2.
- Strong real consumption growth in Q1 was driven partly by a falling saving rate; expect the reverse in Q2.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s disinflation remains on track, paving the way for another bold interest rate cut next month…
- …But a cautious COPOM is signaling a slower pace of easing amid the BRL sell-off, due to external risk.
- Argentina’s Milei delivers the largest fiscal surplus in three decades; his ‘shock therapy’ is paying off.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Q1 data suggest upside risk to our 0.28% March core PCE forecast, but 0.3% rounded still looks likely.
- Q1 GDP growth was better beneath the hood; the headline was hit by a big foreign trade drag...
- ...But expect drags in Q2 from inventories and residential investment, as well as slowing consumption growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Banxico will likely keep rates on hold after the upside surprise in headline inflation in early April.
- Disinflation is likely to resume in late Q2, allowing policymakers to resume cuts, the Fed permitting.
- Economic activity in Argentina continued to falter in Q1, but the EMAE report reveals positive signs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Banxico likely to move to the sidelines next month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
