- US - Mr. Trump is right; the labor market will need substantial Fed easing soon
- EUROZONE - Irish distortions return; we revise down our Q2 EZ GDP forecast
- UK - CPI preview: we still think May inflation will match the MPC’s call
- CHINA+ - China’s residential market enjoying only a modest boost
- EM ASIA - RBI’s surprise front-loading of cuts doesn’t mark the finish line
- LATAM - Uncertainty and caution behind Mexico’s faltering domestic demand
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Disinflation remains on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
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- Capex and consumption have weakened in Mexico as high rates and trade tensions dampen confidence.
- Construction and machinery output have slumped, with tight policy and little appetite for long-term capex.
- Banxico’s rate cuts and the USMCA revision will bring limited relief given the persistent structural challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Stable, but risks loom ahead
- Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief
- Colombian Peso — Top-performing LatAm FX in May
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Weaker consumers’ spending and higher core inflation lie ahead
- EUROZONE - Soft inflation data signal dovish ECB and SNB meetings in June
- UK - Forecast review: Stronger growth and sticky inflation take away a cut
- CHINA+ - China’s residential market enjoying only a modest boost
- EM ASIA - India’s investment-led Q1 leap is unreliable; consumers still in doubt
- LATAM - Solid start for Chile’s Q2 growth; subdued inflation pressures in Peru
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Brazil’s industry weakened in April, hit by falling domestic demand and a difficult external backdrop.
- Sectoral data show a broad-based decline, under- scoring structural strains and fading external support.
- Mexico’s first judicial election saw a low turnout, political interference and risks to independence.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Recovery maintaining a solid pace, but external headwinds still loom.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Recovery maintaining a solid pace, but external headwinds still loom.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mining and services offset weak industrial output in Chile, providing a solid base for Q2 growth.
- Business sentiment improved slightly but remains fragile, with construction still the weakest link.
- Peru’s inflation is well under control, led by cheaper food and fuel prices; the BCRP is likely to cut soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
TRADE TRUCE BRINGS LATAM MODEST GAINS…
- …BUT DOMESTIC FRAGILITIES UNDERMINE GROWTH PROSPECTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Boosted by agriculture and capex, but momentum set to fade.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Retail softens in April, but growth momentum is holding up.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A record agricultural harvest fuelled Brazil’s Q1 growth, but momentum is likely to slow.
- Services and capex held up, while industrial output shrank due to restrictive monetary policy.
- The job market’s resilience complicates the COPOM’s position, but conditions will deteriorate soon enough.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- No formal steps towards constitutional change have been taken, yet, despite Mr. Petro’s fiery rhetoric.
- Low protest turnout and legislative hurdles suggest Mr. Petro’s political project is losing momentum fast.
- Peru’s economy started 2025 strongly, supported by primary sectors and resilient domestic demand.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US- Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- UK-Strong growth and inflation mean an August skip
- EZ-Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- CHINA- Growth worries likely to delay the BoJ’s rate normalisation
- EM ASIA- BI’s easing cycle back in play, with 75bp more cuts by end-2025
- LATAM -Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, with transportation prices falling and only a modest rise in food prices.
- The strong BRL, falling commodity prices and softening demand signal continued disinflation in H2.
- The fiscal outlook is fragile, despite short-term gains, with rigid spending and political resistance to reform.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s current account deficit narrowed sharply in Q1, thanks to resilient exports and remittance inflows.
- Financial inflows weakened amid US trade tensions, global volatility, and domestic political uncertainty.
- The proposed US remittance tax and economic slow- down threaten to disrupt Mexico’s external stability.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Mexico’s economy outperforms in Q1, but risks loomlarge.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
