- In one line: Manufacturing gains offset weakness in other sectors, for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A mixed picture, as transportation costs rise while food prices decline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A mixed picture, as transportation costs rise while food prices decline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A prudent rate cut, defying consensus, reflects improved inflation dynamics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A prudent rate cut, defying consensus, reflects improved inflation dynamics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest rate cut signals a shift towards further easing, with caution.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A modest rate cut signals a shift towards further easing, with caution.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We look for a 0.2% increase in the July core CPI, with the risks tilted towards a lower print.
- Prices for hotels and air travel likely continued to fall; June’s small rise in rents probably was repeated.
- Core goods prices likely edged down again, driven by further falls in both new and used vehicle prices.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Underlying claims rising only slowly for now, but expect a faster deterioration ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: Non-core pressures drive significant gains, offsetting the good news in core.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Non-core pressures drive significant gains, offsetting the good news in core.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Inflation rebounds driven by rising electricity tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico and Chile face rising inflation, amid global turmoil and economic uncertainty.
- Banxico and the BCCh will struggle to balance headline inflation control with economic growth needs.
- Adverse weather and global issues complicate the inflation outlook, but Fed easing will bring relief.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The first estimate of GDP growth was positive at the start of the last three normal recessions...
- ...Payrolls provided a much better near-real time guide; they are not flashing bright red, for now.
- Initial claims still point to a resilient economy, but a run of higher prints this autumn remains likely.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazilian Real — Challenges amidst easing external woes
- Mexican Peso — Hurt by yen carry trade and global noise
- Chilean Peso — Resilient despite copper price declines
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We look for a decline in initial claims to 235K, from 249K, as the boost from Hurricane Beryl wears off...
- ...The trend in initial claims is rising, but daily Homebase employment data present no cause for panic.
- The latest plunge in Treasury yields likely will support housing market activity only marginally.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- A 5% stock price fall usually knocks confidence enough to lower real consumer spending growth by about 0.5pp.
- Associated falls in interest rates will do less than usual to bolster confidence, as households are less indebted.
- Bank lending standards are now tightening at a slower pace, but they remain very restrictive.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Central banks in Mexico and Peru navigate turbulent markets ahead of critical monetary policy meetings.
- Global economic uncertainty forces policymakers to reassess monetary strategies amid financial volatility.
- Policy decisions will increasingly hinge on the actions of the US Fed and geopolitical dynamics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Labor market weakening is gathering speed; decisive Fed easing is coming
- EUROZONE - SNB will still cut twice more; EZ labour market held up in Q2
- UK - Doves let loose... another rate cut is coming by year-end
- CHINA+ - China’s new urbanisation plan should ramp up domestic demand
- EM ASIA - Property price growth to remain elevated in Singapore till 2026
- LATAM - LatAm: Divergent monetary policies highlight complex landscape
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Weak economic activity in Chile signals a need for further interest rate cuts, despite headwinds.
- Confidence declines sharply, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty and higher electricity tariffs.
- Peru maintains benign inflation, allowing the BCRP to consider future rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
