- Economic and market conditions usually have been worse than now to trigger an emergency Fed meeting...
- ...But rates are far above neutral and the next meeting is six weeks out; Mr. Powell will act if markets deteriorate.
- July’s ISM services survey kept recession fears at bay, but it still strongly supports the case for Fed easing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
This week’s Fed inaction was a mistake; the case for 50bp in September is strong.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The deep-rooted weakness in July’s labor market data signals that the Fed has waited too long to ease.
- Increases in the unemployment rate usually gather self-reinforcing momentum once they exceed 0.5pp.
- We maintain our long-held call for 125bp of Fed easing this year; it’s 50/50 whether they begin with 50bp.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Colombia’s BanRep cut rates by 50bp amid a modest economic recovery and further inflation risks.
- Chile’s BCCh was more cautious, keeping rates steady amid uncertainty driven by electricity tariffs.
- BanRep has signaled further rate cuts, contrasting with BCCh’s more data-dependent approach.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A cautious pause amid mixed economic signals.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A cautious pause amid mixed economic signals.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A cautious hold, prioritizing inflation control amid persistent challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A cautious hold, prioritizing inflation control amid persistent challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Struggling, the near-term outlook remains challenging.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Struggling, the near-term outlook remains challenging.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: BanRep maintains steady 50bp rate cuts despite board divide.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: BanRep maintains steady 50bp rate cuts despite board divide.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Homebase data are less useful than usual in July, but business surveys point to sluggish growth in payrolls.
- We see an even chance of the Sahm rule being triggered and expect a below-trend 0.2% increase in AHE.
- Growth in unit labor costs has slowed to well below 2%, pointing to further falls in core inflation ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil, Colombia, and Chile’s central banks diverge in their monetary policy decisions, but caution prevails.
- BCB maintains Selic rate at 10.50%, emphasizing vigilance given inflation pressures and fiscal risk.
- BanRep cuts rate to 10.75%, Chile holds at 5.75% amid mixed economic signals and inflation threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Resilient but slowing, amid domestic and external challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Q2’s rapid growth is unsustainable; expect a slowdown ahead
- EUROZONE - Solid Q2 GDP headline in the EZ, but the details are on the soft side
- UK - MPC preview: Almost ready to cut interest rates, cautiously
- CHINA+ - BoJ likely to move cautiously, mindful of fragile growth
- EM ASIA - Should we start to worry even more about inflation in India?
- LATAM - Trade balances improve in LatAm amid weaker currencies
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Chair Powell says a September easing “could be on the table”, now that labor market risks loom larger.
- Growth in employment costs slowed in Q2, and a further softening in wage growth ahead looks likely.
- The July ISM survey probably will show manufacturing is still treading water; claims are a wildcard today.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
LATAM ECONOMIES SHOWING RESILIENCE...
- ...AMID POLICY CHALLENGES AND GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The FOMC likely will say inflation progress has been better than “modest” and highlight labor market risks.
- A September easing remains very likely; further easing this year is probable, but won’t be signalled strongly yet.
- We expect a below-consensus increase of 0.8% in the ECI in Q2, supporting our dovish Fed view.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico’s economic growth slowed in H1; nearshoring and public spending saved the day.
- Economic activity is facing challenges amid high political uncertainty and elevated interest rates.
- Weak external conditions and policy risk add to the difficult environment over the coming quarters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
